Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money®

Rick Rule: These Commodities Are Mind-Bogglingly Underpriced

Adam Taggart — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 16:32:55 GMT

NOTE: Rick Rule’s annual Symposium is now sold out to attend in-person. BUT, you can still purchase online access to the full event (and its replay videos) by clicking on the button below:

A number of commodities & commodity producers are trading at extreme bargains right now assesses natural resource investor Rick Rule.

Not only for the long-term value of the ore in the ground.

But also for the dramatic efficiencies AI is bringing in getting the ore out of the ground much more cheaply.

For a detailed breakdown of the specific minerals and miners that have Rick's attention most right now, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

If you’d like to take him up on this offer, or talk with him & his staff about any other questions/needs you have regarding buying or storing precious metals, just click on the button below and fill out the short form:

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

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Adam’s Notes: Rick Rule (recorded 6.12.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Rick Rule argued that the AI boom’s enormous infrastructure requirements will drive intense demand for commodities, especially copper and uranium, but decades of underinvestment have created supply constraints that markets cannot quickly resolve.
Physical limits on power, water, and critical materials mean the most aggressive AI buildout timelines are unrealistic; price rationing will occur well before supply catches up.
While a broad liquidity-driven market sell-off

A Sell-Off In Tech Is The Biggest Near-Term Risk To Markets Right Now | Lance Roberts

Adam Taggart — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 16:50:41 GMT

The peace deal announcement rescued markets last week, but Tech (especially semis) still remains very overbought here.

So much so that portfolio manager Lance Roberts cautions the risks for the next few weeks are to the downside, should the white-hot Tech trade experience a pullback.

We discuss the odds of that, as well as liquidity, the future of a Kevin Warsh Fed, what the bond market is telling us right now, the trouble with sentiment indicators, and Lance’s firm’s latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, click here or on the video below:

RECENT VIDEOS

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TM ON PODCAST PLAYERS

Just a reminder that if you prefer to listen to my interviews on your podcast player, Thoughtful Money is now available on the major podcast platforms:

I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me afford the substantial startup costs of running Thoughtful Money.

Premium supporters now receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews on this channel, plus periodic advance-viewing and/or exclusive content not made available to the public, and now our popular MacroPass™ service.

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But whether you do or not, get ready for another week of more great content ahead. We have interviews with Rick Rule, Chris Irons, Andy Schectman, Louis Gave and Kevin Muir.

Stay tuned!

cheers,

My sincere thanks to Lance Roberts and his team at Real Investment Advice for kindly making their weekly Bull/Bear market report available to the Thoughtful Money audience below:

Kevin Warsh And The End Of The Fed’s “Forward Guidance”

By Lance Roberts | Jun 20, 2026

🔎 At a Glance

Kevin Warsh And The End Of The Fed’s “Forward Guidance”
Market Brief & Technical Review
From Lance’s Desk: The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality – RIA
Market stats, screens, and risk indicators

🏛️ Market Brief – Kevin Warsh Jolts A Resilient Tape

For a week that delivered a hawkish regime change at the Fed and the largest options expiration in history, the tape held up remarkably well. All four major indices finished green. The Nasdaq Composite led, up 2.43% to 26,517.93, with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.22% to 2,979.77, the S&P 500 adding 0.93% to 7,500.58, and the Dow rising 0.71% to 51,564.70. That is not what most desks would have drawn up after Wednesday.

The path mattered more than the destination. Stocks ripped on Monday after the US and Iran announced a deal to end hostilities, with the S&P jumping 1.65% and the Nasdaq surging by more than 3%. They handed much of it back on Wednesday when Kevin Warsh used his first meeting as Fed Chair to drop forward guidance and reveal a dot plot in which nine of eighteen officials now pencil in a rate hike this year. Then Thursday’s record quadruple-witching expiration cleared, chips and cyclicals firmed, and the indices closed the holiday-shortened week higher. Markets were dark on Friday for Juneteenth.

The cross-asset board did the explaining. The dollar was the standout. A hawkish Warsh and a market now pricing a rate hike by October lifted the dollar index to roughly 100.7, its highest since May 2025. Gold fell about 3.5% on the week to near $4,175 as the firmer dollar and higher real yields sapped the metal. Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday’s dots, with the 2-year ending at 4.19% and the 10-year at 4.46% after easing slightly on Thursday. Crude held its ground near $75.70, but energy equities lagged as the US-Iran memorandum drained the last of the geopolitical premium, and pump prices finally slipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March.

The standout under the surface was what didn’t happen. The VIX actually fell on the week, easing from above 18 into the mid-16s. This happened despite the Fed turning hawkish, with only a brief pop to 17.2 on the decision. Energy was the clear sector laggard while technology, semiconductors, and small caps carried the load. A market that meets a hawkish regime change with falling volatility is a confident one. Notably, that confidence is precisely what gets repriced when the next surprise lands.

The thread to carry into next week is straightforward. With the Fed no longer telegraphing its hand, the incoming data sets the tone on its own. Thursday’s PCE inflation print is the first real test of that new world.

📈Technical Backdrop – Market Rally Following Kevin Warsh’s Hawkish Stance

The S&P 500 closed the holiday-shortened week at 7,500.58, up 0.93%. That is a number that looks almost dull until you trace the path that produced it. The index rose to 7,554 on Monday on the US-Iran ceasefire. It then handed most of it back into Wednesday’s 7,420 low as Kevin Warsh’s hawkish debut landed. But on Thursday, the market rallied through the largest options expiration on record. That was quite a week, and the market finished only 1.4% below the June 2 record of 7,609.78.

The trend structure is still constructive. Price sits just above a flattening 20-DMA at 7,487. It is also 2.4% above a rising 50-DMA at 7,329, and 8.4% above the 200-DMA at 6,917. That 50-DMA is the same line that absorbed the 4.5% dip we walked through in last week’s report. It has not been seriously tested since. RSI sits at 54.9, which is squarely neutral, with room to run in either direction. The lone caution flag is momentum. Notably, the MACD remains below its signal line, with a negative histogram. The leftover of an early-June pullback, the price has recovered, but momentum has not.

The mechanics are the story for the next two weeks. As Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner notes, Thursday’s roughly $8.3 trillion quadruple-witching expiration, the largest in history, cleared a substantial block of gamma and leaves the tape more sensitive to flows into month- and quarter-end. Rubner’s read past the reset is constructive. There is record retail demand, a buy-the-dip reflex that holds while the VIX sits in the mid-teens. Moreover, one of the strongest seasonal windows of the year approaches as July’s allocation cycle begins.

“May shattered previous activity records in cash equities, surpassing the prior monthly high set in January 2021 by more than 10%. Retail cash equity volumes ran 60% above the 2025 average and more than twice the 2024 average. From this peak, activity has accelerated further in June, with volumes this month tracking 9% above May’s record. Nine of the ten largest retail trading days ever observed on our platform have occurred in just the last month, including seven during the first half of June alone. Friday (June 12) marked the largest single day of retail net buying in our dataset, surpassing the previous record by 50%.” – Citadel

We splice that flow tailwind against the main story below. The path of least resistance may well be higher. However, Warsh just pulled out the guidance cushion, and an OPEX-thinned tape reacts harder to surprises. Respect 7,329 and the 50-DMA as support. Investors should treat the 7,610 record as the level to clear. Remain attentive and let price, rather than the narrative, set your exposure.

Trade accordingly.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Next week is built around one number. With Kevin Warsh stripping out forward guidance, the market no longer has a Fed roadmap to lean on. That means the data has to do the talking. As noted above, the most important release lands on Thursday.

On Thursday, June 25, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the May PCE price index. That reading will be alongside the third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP. The PCE report is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the first to fall within Warsh’s new framework. April ran hot at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core. Wells Fargo looks for the May headline PCE to accelerate toward 4.1% on energy costs, with core near 3.4%. A hot print hardens the case for a rate hike, but the report is a relic of high oil prices. Core is the line that matters most here. Energy is the one part of inflation that the Fed admits it cannot fix with rate policy. However, given the decline in oil prices, the markets will likely “look through” the report.

The earnings calendar carries its own signal. FedEx reports on Tuesday and is the classic read on global shipping and trade volumes. Micron follows on Wednesday and is the cleanest signal for AI memory demand. Any cautious reading could undermine the parabolic rise in that sector leadership. Carnival, Paychex, and Jefferies fill in around them. Wednesday also brings May’s new home sales and the Federal Reserve’s annual bank stress-test results. The latter is worth watching for what it signals about capital returns across the financials.

One thing the calendar is light on is Fed-speak. Part of Warsh’s redesign is fewer public appearances, so there is no parade of governors to massage the message between meetings. That puts even more weight on the print itself.

Layered over all of it is the calendar itself. Next week runs into quarter-end, and the pension and index rebalancing flows we flagged in the technical section build through the week toward June 30. Any data-driven weakness will collide with mechanical month-end repositioning, which can amplify the move in either direction.

The one to circle is Thursday’s PCE. In a market that just lost its forward guidance, an upside surprise on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is the cleanest path to pricing that 2026 hike in full, and the dollar and the front end of the curve will move first.

💰 Kevin Warsh And The End Of The Fed’s “Forward Guidance”

The Fed didn’t move rates this week. The target range held at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced. But underneath that non-event, Kevin Warsh did something far more consequential than any quarter-point decision. He changed how the Fed talks to you. Previously, in “Bull Market Pullback: Why The 4.5% Dip Held The 50-DMA,” we noted this bull rests on a narrow set of supports. Warsh just pulled one of them out.

As shown, the normal FOMC statement ran just 130 words, down from north of 300 in recent meetings. As we noted in the Daily Market Commentary:

“It’s the shortest since the Alan Greenspan era and contains no forward guidance. Also of note, there were no dissenting votes, which suggests the Fed’s posture is more hawkish. The statement “The Committee will deliver price stability,” together with the higher inflation forecasts, is definitely hawkish. That said, they also state, “its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.” This line may lead some to believe the Fed could do QE even if it hikes rates.”

The bottom line, and arguably the most crucial, is that forward guidance is gone. Warsh called the old language “not well suited for the current policy conjuncture.” He’s right and said the new version simply lays out the facts as best the committee can judge them. He declined to submit his own dot to the projection plot. However, most importantly, he rolled out five new task forces. Those task forces will review the Fed’s communications, its balance sheet, operations, data sources, and the drivers of inflation.

This is not cosmetic. For roughly fifteen years, the Fed has operated on a simple bargain. The Fed tells markets roughly what it intends to do. In exchange, markets price the path with far less drama. That process has worked. However, Kevin Warsh just tore up that bargain on day one for a good reason. We will discuss that more momentarily.

The real shock wasn’t the statement. It was the math underneath it. In March, the median FOMC member projected the funds rate would end 2026 at 3.4%, implying a cut. The projections Kevin Warsh’s committee released Wednesday put that median at 3.8%, a quarter point above today’s range. Nine of eighteen officials now pencil in at least one hike this year, and six of them see two. The committee also marked PCE inflation up to 3.6% from 2.7%, trimmed growth to 2.2%, and nudged unemployment down to 4.3%. The 2027 and 2028 dots still show one cut each, so the message isn’t permanent war on inflation. It’s higher for longer, starting now.

Read that again. The same body that opened the year telling you to expect cuts is now telling you to expect hikes, against 4.2% CPI, the hottest reading since April 2023. Goldman’s Kay Haigh said the bank’s base case is still that the Fed narrowly avoids hiking, but he called the path narrow and put a high premium on the incoming inflation data. As we argued earlier this year in “The Weak Dollar Narrative,” Warsh’s policy was always likely to run more hawkish and more dollar-friendly than the easing crowd wanted to believe. This week confirmed it, and the dollar had its sharpest rally in quite some time.

So, with that, I said I would get back to the “why” behind the Fed killing forward guidance.

Why Killing Guidance Kills The “Fed Put”

Forward guidance was never really about precision. It was about suppressing volatility. Bernanke institutionalized it after 2008, Yellen refined it, and Powell leaned on it hard through COVID and the subsequent hiking cycle. The promise buried inside every “data-dependent” caveat was that the Fed would telegraph its hand before it acted. That telegraph is what investors came to treat as the “Fed put.”

In other words, the market quit trading on fundamentals and just came to trade off the Fed’s guidance. The “Fed Put” is simply the inherent “belief” that, no matter what happens, the Fed will respond to save the markets. That belief is anchored in a statement made by Ben Bernanke in 2010, when the Fed launched its second round of Quantitative Easing.

“This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.” – Ben Bernanke

In hindsight, the problem with that approach is abundantly clear, as it created a market based on “moral hazard.”

“The Federal Reserve’s well-intentioned interventions have created one of modern finance’s most powerful behavioral distortions: the conviction that there is always a safety net. After the Global Financial Crisis, zero interest rates and repeated rounds of quantitative easing conditioned investors to expect that policy support would always return during volatility. Over time, that conditioning hardened into a reflex: buy every dip, because the Fed will not allow markets to fail.“

Kevin Warsh has argued for years that guidance ties the central bank’s hands, and at his June 17 press conference, he made the sharper point. The market itself is the signal a telegraphing Fed throws away.

“Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers. But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we’ve said, we’re taking the most important source of information and we’re being blind to it.” — Kevin Warsh, June 17, 2026 FOMC press conference

He isn’t wrong on the theory. Removing the cushion still has a cost: uncertainty. Howard Marks has made the point for decades that you can’t eliminate uncertainty; you can only decide how to price it. A guidance-driven Fed priced it for you; however, a Kevin Warsh Fed hands that job back to the market. Markets hate that. When the central bank stops pre-committing, the range of plausible outcomes widens, risk premia have to rise to compensate, and an expensive market carrying a CAPE near 42 has very little margin to absorb that repricing without a drawdown.

None of this is an accident of personality. Citi noted that a new Chair’s first meeting tends to get used to establish hawkish bona fides, and that the two-year Treasury sells off far more than average on those debuts. The tape delivered on cue. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,420.10, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.34%, which Charles Schwab flagged as the worst “Fed day” for a new Chair since 1994. The two-year yield jumped roughly 8 to 11 basis points toward 4.15% as traders stripped cut bets out of the front end. Less forward guidance is not the same thing as more discipline, but a transfer of risk, from the Fed’s balance sheet to your portfolio.

So, with that understanding, what should we be thinking about as investors?

What Should Investors Do Now

A Fed run by Kevin Warsh that refuses to pre-commit doesn’t mean you sell everything. It means you change how you operate. The old playbook was to forecast the Fed and position ahead of it. That playbook just lost its instruction manual. The new one is simpler and harder at the same time. You react to data instead of predicting policy, and you build a process that doesn’t depend on knowing what the Fed will do next, because the Fed has now told you plainly that it won’t say. Here are eight adjustments for a market without a guidance backstop.

First, stop trading the dots and start trading the data. With guidance gone, the economic calendar replaces the press conference as the main event. Every CPI, PCE, payroll, and PPI print is now a standalone catalyst that can move the funds-rate odds on its own. Mark the dates, and size risk going into the big releases rather than carrying full exposure into a number that can swing the hike probability by twenty points in a single morning.
Second, lift your cash and ballast modestly. This is not a call to go to cash. It’s a call to carry a little more dry powder than you did a month ago, so a guidance-driven air pocket becomes an opportunity instead of a problem. A few extra points in short-term Treasuries or money markets buys optionality you simply didn’t need when the Fed was telegraphing every move.
Third, don’t bet on a known rate path. A Fed that won’t pre-commit can pivot faster in either direction than a guidance-bound one ever could. That cuts hard against concentrated long-duration positions that only pay off if the path matches your forecast. Keep duration deliberate, and size it to survive being wrong rather than to maximize being right.
Fourth, respect the levels, not the narrative. We mapped the technical structure last week, and the 50-DMA remains the line that matters. In a no-guidance regime, price action is the cleanest real-time read on how the market is digesting policy, far cleaner than parsing a Fed speech that no longer tells you anything. Let the levels, not the headlines, trigger your exposure changes.
Fifth, use volatility instead of fearing it. Wider two-way ranges are the direct, mechanical consequence of pulling out the guidance cushion. For an undisciplined investor, that reads as stress. For a disciplined one, it’s a gift, because it widens the gap between good entry points and good exit points and rewards a rules-based rebalancing process.
Sixth, hedge while complacency is still cheap. The VIX stayed subdued even through Wednesday’s drop, which tells you the market has not yet repriced the uncertainty Kevin Warsh just injected into the system. That is precisely when protection is cheapest. Whether you use index puts, a collar on concentrated winners, or simply trim your most extended positions, the time to buy insurance is before the house is on fire.
Seventh, watch the front end of the curve for your real signal. With the Fed silent, the two-year Treasury and fed-funds futures now carry the information that the dot plot and the guidance used to provide. If the two-year keeps climbing, the market is pricing a hike regardless of what anyone at the Fed says. That, not the next speech, is your tell.
Eighth, don’t overreact in either direction. Selling everything because nine dots moved is a mistake, because the dots are projections, not commitments, and this same committee was dead wrong about cuts only six months ago. Dismissing the shift as noise is the opposite mistake. The regime changed this week, even though the rate did not, and the investors who keep operating as if a Fed put still backstops every dip will be the most surprised when it doesn’t.

The Fed put isn’t gone. It just got a lot more EXPENSIVE, and you’re the one paying the premium now. Kevin Warsh just told us, in about 130 words, that he isn’t going to hold the market’s hand on the way down. Position accordingly.

🖊️ From Lance’s Desk

This week’s #MacroView blog examines the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which continues to hover at levels not seen since the “Financial Crisis” even as the economy continues to grow. What is causing the disconnect, is there a better measure, and what should investors be paying attention to.

Also Posted This Week:

Bull Market Pullback: Why The 4.5% Dip Held The 50-DMA – RIA – by Lance Roberts
The K-Shaped Economy: Why The Middle Class Moved Up. – RIA – by Lance Roberts

📊 Market Statistics & Analysis

Weekly technical overview across key sectors, risk indicators, and market internals

💸 Market & Sector X-Ray: Market Rebounds From 50-DMA

As noted last week, the recent correction to the 50-DMA brought retail buyers back into the market. Technology remains the clear winner as Energy continues to give up most of its YTD gains following the resolution with Iran. That market is not broadly overbought, but certain sectors are. As such, manage your exposure risk accordingly and take profits as needed.

📐 Technical Composite: 85.15 – Still Overbought

As noted last week, “The buy point appeared on Wednesday as investors started ‘buying the dip’ near the 50-DMA. Technically, the market reset a small bit of its previously overbought condition, but remains stretched.” That risk on trade continued into the end of the week, pushing the weekly gauge higher. Trade accordingly.

🤑 Fear/Greed Index: 79.46 – Investors Rush Back Into Stocks

We noted that the recent selloff reduced investor sentiment from extreme greed to greed. However, following the SpaceX IPO, retail investors poured back into the markets, pushing stocks and the index higher toward more extreme greed levels.

🔁 Relative Factor Performance

Last week, we noted that “the correction happened early in the week pushing MegaCap stocks into more oversold territory while Momentum remains very overbought.” That remains the case this week although Megacap did see some buying last week. However, the “risk on” trade of high beta stocks, momentum and emerging markets continues and current hold at more extreme levels. Take profits in these areas accordingly before a rotation sets in.

📊 MFBR Index (Money Flow/Breadth Ratio Indicator): 60% = Buy Zone

NEW! MFBR Index: The Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) model is a rules-based equity allocation framework that uses weekly S&P 500 money flow data to generate buy, sell, and neutral signals. The MFBR systematically adjusts portfolio equity exposure in response to the direction and persistence of institutional capital flows. It aims to reduce drawdowns while capturing the majority of market upside.

“”As of June 18, 2026, with the S&P 500 at 7,500.58, the Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) stands at 60% and rising. This places the indicator in BUY territory (60-70%), triggering a NEUTRAL signal. The prior week reading was 60%, representing a 5% decline over the trailing four weeks. The model currently recommends HOLDING exposure at 100%, a level that has remained since April 17, 2026 (9 weeks). This reflects a FLOW-OVERLAY OVERRIDE: the trailing 4-week net dollar flow has swung sharply positive (>$300B) after a deeply negative prior 4 weeks, a historically strong contrarian buy signal. The model’s 25-year backtest validates this signal across multiple market cycles.”

📊 Sector Model & Risk Ranges

As noted last week, “the correction came, and the deviations started to reverse. Technology, Energy and Transportation are still well above long-term means, but those deviations are closing. As discussed previously, the risk of a rotation was elevated so the process of risk management paid dividends.” That analysis remains the case this week, even as the market rallied from the recent correction lows, but the selloff in oil has taken Energy from very overbought to oversold. That rotation was always likely, and that is why risk management remains key to long-term success. Small cap stocks, and Emerging markets remain very deviated from long-term means so manage risk wisely.

Have a great week.

~ Lance Roberts, CIO, RIA Advisors

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DEBATE | Mark Newton & Jonathan Krinsky On Where The Market Is Headed For The Rest Of 2026

Adam Taggart — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 23:06:59 GMT

Last night I was asked to moderate another debate for Zero Hedge:

As we approach the midway point here in 2026, how are markets likely to perform over the second half of the year?

The S&P up nearly 10% YTD, NASDAQ up nearly 14% as of this recording

Will we have a rare 4th consecutive year of robust double-digits gains?

To unpack for us, we have the good fortune to be joined by technical analysts Mark Newton of Fundstrat and Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG.

Mark leaned more optimistic, Jonathan was a bit more cautious.

To determine who won, watch the debate replay by clicking here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

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Adam’s Notes: Mark Newton vs Jonathan Krinsky (recorded 6.17.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Jonathan Krinsky and Mark Newton both see equity markets in a generally constructive position for the near term, with improving breadth and supportive conditions from falling energy prices after the Middle East de-escalation.
They agree the semiconductor and AI-heavy parts of the market have become extremely extended and carry the highest risk of consolidation or disappointment, though they differ modestly on timing and severity.
They both think that capital rotation into

SPECIAL REPORT: Kevin Warsh Assumes Command Of The Federal Reserve | Axel Merk

Adam Taggart — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:51:05 GMT

Yesterday, Kevin Warsh made his inaugural debut as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Along with revealing that the FOMC is keeping the policy rate unchanged for now, he announced a number of changes at the Fed now that he’s “the new sheriff in town”.

How did the markets react?

Fed-watcher Axel Merk joined us this morning to share his thought’s on Warsh’s debut, as well as take live viewer Q&A.

To watch the replay, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

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Adam’s Notes: Axel Merk (recorded 6.18.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, delivered a strong first performance emphasizing price stability, reducing excessive communication and forward guidance, and launching task forces for broader reforms.
Axel Merk, who knows Warsh personally and has long advocated for him, was highly positive, viewing the meeting as a successful reset that restores credibility and shifts focus back to data-driven policy.
Markets reacted

"I'm A Buyer Of Oil Here" | Jeff Currie

Adam Taggart — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:03:35 GMT

It has been three months after the outbreak of the US/Iran war, and the world is still dealing with the ongoing effects of the oil price shock it created.

Not only is that having an inflationary impact on the prices of many goods & services, but it's also raising increasing concerns of the availability of oil supplies.

Could the world soon start experiencing an inventory shortage of oil -- the essential fuel that enables global commerce?

Or will the recently announced peace deal between the US and Iran allow us to avoid that fate?

To find out, we have the great good fortune to talk today with Jeff Currie, Executive Co-Chairman of Abaxx Markets.

The punchline is Jeff is very bullish on oil and oil stocks from here.

To learn why, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

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Adam’s Notes: Jeff Currie (recorded 6.15.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

The global oil market is tightening rapidly due to the US-Iran conflict, with US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) levels at multi-decade lows and commercial inventories critically low; draw rates remain extremely high at 5-6 million barrels per day.
Even with the announced peace deal, significant logistical, sustainability, and geopolitical risks remain, making a near-term “Day Zero” inventory crisis by

Can We Trust This US-Iran "Peace Deal"? | Michael Every

Adam Taggart — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 16:15:59 GMT

The trend change away from globalization towards nationalism and mercantilism continues around the world.

For the man who predicted this over a decade in advance, what does he see ahead for both geopolitics and the global economy?

We're very fortunate to sit down again today with Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank.

This important interview was recorded just a few hours after the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding was agreed to.

Will it stand? And what should we expect from such a deal?

To hear Michael’s expert analysis, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

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Adam’s Notes: Michael Every (recorded 6.14.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

The interview discusses a newly announced US-Iran peace deal, which Michael Every views cautiously as a “memorandum of misunderstanding” with heavy lifting on the words “peace” and “deal,” limited details, and low probability of fully resolving core issues like Iran’s nuclear program.
Every emphasizes persistent regional complexities, including fractured Iranian decision-making, Gulf states’ hedging with alternative infrastructure, and the unlikelihood of major breakthroughs like widespread Abraham Accords or Iran fully defunding proxies.
Broader themes include

Ted Oakley: Wall Street Is Running Investors Off A Cliff

Adam Taggart — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 16:11:09 GMT

Veteran high net worth money manager Ted Oakley warns that we're currently in a "lemming market".

Investors, whipped up by a complicit Wall Street, are stampeding in a herd after bigger and bigger speculative gains.

At some point, he says from the experience of past cycles, they follow each other off a cliff and suffer losses that often set them back years.

So how is Ted and his team at Oxbow managing client funds in this market environment?

To find out, click here or on the below video.

But before you do, if you’d like to book a free financial consultation with Ted & his team at Oxbow Advisors, you can do so by clicking on the blue button below:

Schedule Your Free Consultation

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

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Adam’s Notes: Ted Oakley (recorded 6.11.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Ted Oakley views the current market as late-stage with high speculation, driven by AI/semiconductor enthusiasm and upcoming IPOs like SpaceX, signaling potential greed and froth similar to past bubbles.
He sees economic resilience from government and corporate spending but anticipates a market correction or swoon in the coming months, followed by election-year strength, and remains cautious overall.
Oxbow Advisors is positioned

Colliding Market Headwinds & Tailwinds Make This A Time For Caution | Michael Lebowitz

Adam Taggart — Sat, 13 Jun 2026 16:40:53 GMT

Markets are a chaotic mess right now.

Volatility has returned as numerous headwinds & tailwinds compete to pull stocks in opposite directions.

What should investors do in such an environment?

Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss his current outlook, plus the SpaceX IPO, Bitcoin, quantum computing, bond yields, inflation, oil prices and Michael's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, click here or on the video below:

RECENT VIDEOS

Schedule Your Free Consultation

TM ON PODCAST PLAYERS

Just a reminder that if you prefer to listen to my interviews on your podcast player, Thoughtful Money is now available on the major podcast platforms:

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now:

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But whether you do or not, get ready for another week of more great content ahead. We have interviews with Jeff Currie, Ted Oakley, Rick Rule, Mark Newton, Jonathan Krinsky and Axel Merk.

Stay tuned!

cheers,

My sincere thanks to Lance Roberts and his team at Real Investment Advice for kindly making their weekly Bull/Bear market report available to the Thoughtful Money audience below:

May Inflation Print: Why the 4.2% Headline Is an Oil Story

By Lance Roberts | Jun 13, 2026

🔎 At a Glance

May Inflation Of 4.2%: Media Narrative Misses The Reality
Market Brief & Technical Review
From Lance’s Desk: The K-Shaped Economy: Why The Middle Class Moved Up. – RIA
Market stats, screens, and risk indicators

🏛️ Market Brief – SpaceX Debuts And Elon Is A Trillionaire

What a week. A rocket company became the largest public offering in history. The May inflation print landed mid-week as the hottest reading in three years. And the whole tape spent five sessions hostage to a single question about the Persian Gulf. When the dust settled, the S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,431.46, up 0.65% on the week. That rally clawed back roughly a quarter of the prior Friday’s brutal 2.64% plunge to 7,383.74. The Nasdaq added 0.70%, and the Dow gained 0.66%. Small caps kept doing their 2026 thing, with the Russell 2000 leading on the upside again.

The headline event was SpaceX’s (SPCX) Friday debut. The stock priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed its first session at $160.95, a 19% pop. That surge briefly pushed the company’s value above $2.2 trillion, making Elon Musk, on paper, the world’s first trillionaire. The offering raised about $75 billion. That isn’t a record. That is more than double Saudi Aramco’s prior record, the $29 billion deal in 2019.

So what did the action actually tell us? Three things.

First, the appetite for the AI story has not died; it has simply moved venues. Money that fled semiconductors during the prior week’s chip wreck found a fresh, even bigger AI vehicle to chase. With SpaceX now housing the former xAI unit and pitching data centers in orbit, the enthusiasm was unsurprising.

Second, the broad index barely budged on the spectacle. The S&P added only half a percent Friday, even as a $2 trillion company traded at record volume, which suggests the enthusiasm is concentrated, not contagious. Of the 550 million shares issued for the IPO, 517 million changed hands on the first day. In other words, almost every share that was allocated in the IPO was sold.

Third, and most important for the weeks ahead, a flood of supply is on the way. As discussed in that article, the well-received SpaceX clears the runway for the rest of the queue, and OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly next. When the most prized private names all rush the exit at once, history says pay attention to who is selling.

Underneath that headline, the macro week was a tug-of-war. Wednesday’s May inflation print showed headline inflation reaccelerating to 4.2% year over year, the fastest since April 2023, while crude oil and the Iran conflict drove the entire week’s risk tone. Stocks sank Tuesday when President Trump teased fresh strikes, then ripped higher Thursday when he called them off, then drifted up Friday on reports of a near-term truce that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil fell from roughly $91 early in the week to $84.29 by Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield, rather than spiking on the hot CPI, actually eased to 4.45% from 4.55%, and the VIX collapsed to 17.68 as the war premium drained out.

The thread to carry into next week is simple. This tape is not trading on earnings or valuation right now. It is trading on oil and on the headline it feeds, and that single variable will set the table for the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

📈Technical Backdrop – Held The 50-DMA, Now What

We have previously discussed the risk of a pullback following a prolonged stretch of weekly advances. While the bulls can take the week, the 3-5% correction we discussed is now complete. The market hit support at the 50-day moving average and registered a 4.5% peak-to-trough decline. Notably, the “buy the dip” crowd showed up exactly where they were expected to.

“A normal 5% to 8% pause here only takes us back to the 50-day. That’s the level trend-followers add to, not abandon.“

The S&P probed the mid-7,200s intraday around Tuesday and Wednesday. Held, and then rallied hard Thursday and Friday to close the week at 7,431.46. That is textbook support behavior, and it keeps the larger uptrend intact above the April 2025 lows. The quality of the bounce matters too. Thursday’s 1.75% surge came on broad participation rather than a narrow handful of megacaps. That is the kind of thrust that tends to mark a low rather than a dead-cat bounce.

Momentum tells the more interesting story. The 14-day RSI sat above 70 in late May when the index printed its all-time high near 7,621. By the depths of this month’s pullback, it had fallen to roughly 41, and it closed the week back at 52.73, just above the neutral 50 line. In plain terms, the market burned off its overbought condition without breaking trend. Momentum has now turned back up, which is the healthiest way for a market to digest. MACD remains above its zero line, but the histogram rolled over during the selloff. Therefore, upside momentum is positive but no longer accelerating. Breadth is the soft spot. As of mid-week, only about 51% of S&P members traded above their own 50-day average. As has been the case, it remains a thin majority for an index sitting 2.5% below its high.

Here is the trader’s map for the week. The first hurdle overhead is the 20-DMA at 7,466, which the index is pressing right up against, then the round 7,500 level, then the prior all-time high at 7,621. Support is the line in the sand. The 50-DMA at 7,248 just proved itself, below that sits the 38.2% retracement of the March-through-June rally at 7,118, and below that the rising 200-DMA at 6,882.

The single level I’m watching into next week is 7,248. Hold the 50-DMA through the Fed meeting and this looks like a routine shakeout inside an uptrend, the kind of healthy pullback that resets sentiment without doing structural damage. Lose it on a hawkish surprise and the 7,118 Fib line becomes the real test, with the 200-DMA at 6,882 as the last line of defense for the bull case. Keep trailing stops disciplined and resist the urge to chase the SpaceX-fueled enthusiasm at the highs..

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Everything funnels into Wednesday. The Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting on June 17 with a rate decision, an updated dot plot, and a press conference, and this one carries an extra layer of intrigue because it’s the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. Markets are pricing a near-certain hold, with the CME FedWatch tool putting the odds of no change above 96% and, tellingly, now leaning toward a hike rather than a cut as the next move. So the rate itself is a non-event.

The real signal sits in the Summary of Economic Projections, where a single shifted dot or a hawkish tweak to the inflation forecast would tell us how the new chair plans to treat an energy-driven price spike. The question is not what the Fed does on Wednesday. It’s how a hard-money chair frames a 4.2% May inflation print he can’t control.

The same morning brings May retail sales, which matter more than usual. If the consumer is rolling over while inflation runs hot, the stagflation whispers get louder, and that combination is the one scenario that genuinely complicates the look-through case I make below. If spending holds, it hands the hawks more cover to keep policy tight.

Monday’s industrial production and Tuesday’s housing starts fill in the growth picture, and the Bank of Japan delivers its own rate decision Tuesday, a reminder that the yen carry trade is never far from the conversation whenever global liquidity gets repriced. Thursday is light on data but heavy on read-through, with Accenture reporting. Watch its commentary on AI consulting demand closely, because it’s one of the cleanest tells on whether corporate AI spending is still accelerating or starting to cool.

Notably, this is also a holiday-shortened trading week with the markets closed on Friday, June 19, for Juneteenth. With all the weight stacked on Wednesday, the risk of holding stocks over a long weekend rises.

💰 May Inflation of 4.2%: Media Narrative Misses Reality

The May inflation print landed on Wednesday, and the doom crowd pounced. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 4.2% year over year, the hottest reading since April 2023, and the “inflation is back” choir was in full voice within the hour. I want to push back on that, because two weeks ago I made exactly this argument in “Why The Doom Crowd Is Watching The Wrong Indicator,” and this May inflation print is the clearest confirmation yet. The scary headline is not a broad inflation breakout. It’s an oil bill.

Strip the May inflation print open, and the story falls apart on the first page. Energy prices jumped 3.9% in May alone and are up 23.5% over the past year, and that single category accounted for more than 60% of the entire monthly increase in the all-items index. The high correlation between oil prices and the May inflation print is unsurprising, given the pass-through of rising energy prices into the underlying products and services it touches.

This is why the “Core CPI” is more important to watch, particularly from a market and monetary policy view. The core reading removes food and energy precisely because they’re volatile and supply-driven, rose just 0.2% on the month. That was below the 0.3% economists expected. Core goods prices actually fell 0.1%, which tells you the tariff pass-through everyone feared all spring simply isn’t showing up in the data.

This is why paying attention to real wages is the most important point.

A 4.2% headline that is three-fifths gasoline is not the same animal as a 4.2% headline driven by wages, rents, and services broadening out across the economy. That is what real wages are telling us. The first is a tax on consumers that demand will eventually crush. The second is the kind of self-reinforcing spiral the Fed actually fears.

This report is emphatically the first kind.

Core Inflation Is Doing Exactly What the Fed Wants

Here’s the part of the May inflation print that got buried under the headline. At a 0.2% monthly pace, core inflation is running right around the Fed’s target on an annualized basis, and the year-over-year core rate of 2.9% is the number that actually drives policy. The chart below shows the sources of May’s headline increase. When 60% of a monthly print is one volatile category that swings on a Persian Gulf headline, you don’t have an inflation problem. You have an oil problem wearing an inflation costume.

This matters because the Fed under Kevin Warsh has to decide what to react to. A hard-money chair has every temperamental reason to lean against a 4-handle headline. But the mandate is built on core and on expectations, and both are behaving. The Fed will look THROUGH an oil spike it cannot control, because hiking into an energy shock would only deepen the demand destruction that’s already pulling the headline back down on its own.

Don’t believe me? The bond market is already telling you the same thing.

The Bond Market Already Looked Through the Headline

The smartest, deepest pool of capital on the planet already told you the same thing about the May inflation print. If the bond market believed 4.2% was a real, sticky, broadening inflation problem, yields would have ripped higher and the curve would have repriced for tighter policy. The opposite happened.

The 10-year yield eased to 4.45% from 4.55% across the week, the 2-year dropped a full 12 basis points to 4.05%, and the rate market kept pricing a near-certain hold at Wednesday’s meeting. That’s not the signature of a bond market bracing for an inflation regime change. That’s a bond market that read the same energy carve-out I did and concluded the headline will fade as oil rolls over on Strait of Hormuz peace headlines.

Think about how unusual that is. The hottest inflation print in three years lands, and the asset most sensitive to inflation rallies. Bonds and stocks don’t always agree, but when they diverge this sharply on an inflation read, the bond market is usually pricing the more durable signal, because its participants get paid to be right about exactly this variable. When that happens, I’ll take the bond market’s verdict almost every time.

“Inflation isn’t a single number, it’s a regime. And regimes are set by the variables that lead, like wages, not the variables that follow, like a gasoline-driven CPI headline.”

What Should Investors Do Now

None of this means you ignore inflation or abandon discipline. It means you refuse to let one oil-soaked May inflation print stampede you out of a market that just held its 50-DMA and burned off an overbought condition. The risk into a Warsh-led Fed is real, and the right response is to manage exposure, not to panic-sell into a 0.65% up week.

Here is how we’re thinking about positioning.

While the doom crowd is frantically telling you that the May inflation print of 4.2% means the Fed is trapped and the bull market is over, look at the receipts. Core is at target, the bond market shrugged, oil is already falling on peace headlines, and the tariff pass-through everyone feared never showed up in core goods.

The honest risk isn’t runaway inflation. It’s a hawkish Fed reacting to the wrong number on Wednesday, and that’s a risk you manage with stops and cash, not by dumping good companies into a recovering tape. I’ve been through enough of these headline scares to know that the investors who get hurt are rarely the ones who stayed disciplined. They’re the ones who let a single scary number make the decision for them.

Watch 7,248, watch the dots, and watch the wages.

🖊️ From Lance’s Desk

This week’s #MacroView blog examines the “K-shaped” economy, which has become a media narrative suggesting the middle class is being left behind as the wealthy hoard all the money, but is that “true?”

Also Posted This Week:

The IPO Boom: Where Will The Money Come From? – RIA – by Michael Lebowitz
Equity Supply Surge: What Historically Comes Next – RIA – by Lance Roberts

📊 Market Statistics & Analysis

Weekly technical overview across key sectors, risk indicators, and market internals

💸 Market & Sector X-Ray: Market Rebounds From 50-DMA

As noted last week, we expected the rotation to continue this week, which it did early as the market tested its 50-DMA. Defensive areas of the market offset some of that decline. Given the massive expansion across the Technology market, more derisking remains possible, so trade accordingly.

📐 Technical Composite: 80.62 – Correction From Overbought

As noted last week, “That correction process likely started this past week, and could have more to go before a more buyable entry point reveals itself.” That buy point appeared on Wednesday as investors started “buying the dip” near the 50-DMA. Technically, the market reset a small bit of its previously overbought condition, but remains stretched. Trade accordingly.

🤑 Fear/Greed Index: 74.15 – Greed Remains Stable Despite Early Week Selloff

After last week’s selloff, which sharply reduced investor sentiment from extreme greed to greed, the late-week rally kept sentiment in greed territory. We will see how markets respond into next week, but upside is likely limited at this juncture until a larger reduction in sentiment occurs.

🔁 Relative Factor Performance

Last week, we noted that “The correction that started last week, was inevitable and likely has more room to go as money rotates from risk-on to risk-off.” That happened early in the week pushing MegaCap stocks into more oversold territory while Momentum remains very overbought. Interestingly, a “risk off” rotation may find the MegaCap stocks a place of safety if any market correction resumes next week.

📊 MFBR Index (Money Flow/Breadth Ratio Indicator): 60% = Buy Zone

“As of June 12, 2026, with the S&P 500 at 7,431.46, the Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) stands at 60% and rising. This places the indicator in BUY territory (60-70%), triggering a NEUTRAL signal. The prior week reading was 55%, representing a 10% decline over the trailing four weeks. The model currently recommends HOLDING exposure at 100%, a level that has remained since April 17, 2026 (8 weeks). This reflects a FLOW-OVERLAY OVERRIDE: the trailing 4-week net dollar flow has swung sharply positive (>$300B) after a deeply negative prior 4 weeks, a historically strong contrarian buy signal.”

📊 Sector Model & Risk Ranges

As noted last week, “The broad market is very overbought and trading well above its normal monthly range, along with Technology, which has been responsible for the majority of the market’s recent advance. Technology is increasingly deviating from its short- and long-term means, and a reversal is becoming much more likely.” That correction came this past week, and the deviations started to reverse. Technology, Energy and Transportation are still well above long-term means, but those deviations are closing. As discussed previously, the risk of a rotation was elevated so the process of risk management paid dividends.

Have a great week.

~ Lance Roberts, CIO, RIA Advisors

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Did The Bust Just Begin? | Jesse Felder

Adam Taggart — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 16:01:34 GMT

Today's guest has been warning for a good while now that the current bull market is stocks is in its final innings.

In fact, he thinks the AI boom may be -- right now -- in the process of metastasizing into the AI bust.

It's not all gloom for investors, though. He's quite bullish on commodities -- and the stocks of the companies that produce them -- which he sees as set to experience a multi-year boom.

For a full update on his outlook, we welcome back to the program macro analyst Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.

To find out why he thinks the “Magnificent 7” may soon become the “Maleficent 7”, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

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Adam’s Notes: Jesse Felder (recorded 6.10.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Jesse Felder views the stock market as in a prolonged topping process, with the AI boom in its final “blowoff” phase that could soon turn into a bust due to physical constraints on data center buildouts and slowing demand.
He sees stagflationary risks building from rising prices and weakening hiring, compounded by

AI Boom = Commodities Super-Boom? | Tavi Costa

Adam Taggart — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 17:54:51 GMT

Wall Street couldn't be in love more with all things AI.

But what it's missing is that the buildout for AI requires a lot more commodities. A TREMENDOUS amount more.

Right now Wall Street is underpricing the coming boom in hard assets. Once it realizes its error, commodities will enter a super boom predicts Tavi Costa.

Tavi joined us this morning for a livestream to walk through the immense scale of the coming demand for hard assets — especially the “big ones” like copper, zinc, gold & silver — sharing many of the companies currently on his watchlist.

To watch the replay, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

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Adam’s Notes: Tavi Costa (recorded 6.10.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Tavi Costa, a leading macro and commodity expert at Azuria Capital, argues that the AI boom, combined with deglobalization, reshoring, and surging electricity/infrastructure needs, is driving a major commodities super cycle.
He emphasizes that while AI is a key catalyst, broader trends like onshoring manufacturing and global technology competition will require massive investments in materials, energy, and infrastructure.
Despite strong fundamentals (depleting reserves, underinvestment in new supply, attractive margins), commodity prices and mining stocks remain undervalued due to investor focus on tech growth, poor industry perception, and conservative analyst models.
Costa highlights opportunities in

We've Got 'A Wild Ride' Ahead | Jonathan Wellum

Adam Taggart — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 16:16:00 GMT

The day of panic the stock market experienced last Friday is just a taste of what's to come, predicts financial advisor Jonathan Wellum.

With so many asset prices stretched to historic extremes and so many macro risk factors currently circulating, heightened volatility is going to be the theme of the back half of 2026 says Jonathan.

"It's going to be a wild ride" from here, he warns.

For all the specifics why, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

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Adam’s Notes: Jonathan Wellum (recorded 6.8.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Jonathan Wellum views the Friday market sell-off as an overreaction to strong U.S. jobs data, which he sees as fundamentally positive due to Trump administration policies fostering private-sector growth, onshoring, and productivity rather than inflation.
Jonathan is very concerned about

The Next Big Money Printing Cycle Is Almost Here | Lawrence Lepard

Adam Taggart — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 16:05:54 GMT

Lawrence Lepard warns that "The Big Print" he wrote about in his book is fast approaching.

This will be another surge of $trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that will spike inflation and accelerate the devaluation of the dollar.

He expects hard assets and commodities -- especially gold, silver and Bitcoin -- to rocket higher in price.

And his counsel to investors is to increase exposure to these assets while there's still time.

To hear Larry's full “Big Print” prediction, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

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Adam’s Notes: Lawrence Lepard (recorded 6.4.26)

Lawrence Lepard, author of The Big Print, argues that in a credit-driven system where debt grows faster than GDP, the U.S. will eventually face another major monetary expansion (”Big Print”) to prevent a sovereign debt or currency crisis.
He sees this as mathematically inevitable due to the Fed’s financial stability mandate, though timing remains uncertain; he expects it within the next

Is The Rally Over? Has The Pullback Now Started? | Lance Roberts

Adam Taggart — Sat, 06 Jun 2026 16:45:24 GMT

Stocks finally had a down week, breaking a 9-in-a-row streak of up weeks.

And in particular, the markets broke down hard on Friday. The S&P was down over -2.5% and the NASDAQ down nearly -5%.

Regular watchers know that portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for weeks that a pullback was increasingly likely.

Now that it appears to be here, how low could things go?

He and I discuss that, as well as the SpaceX and other new IPOs, the latest jobs numbers, private credit & oil reserve risks, and of course, his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, click here or on the video below:

RECENT VIDEOS

Schedule Your Free Consultation

TM ON PODCAST PLAYERS

Just a reminder that if you prefer to listen to my interviews on your podcast player, Thoughtful Money is now available on the major podcast platforms:

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now:

Subscribe now

But whether you do or not, get ready for another week of more great content ahead. We have interviews with Jeff Currie, Lawrence Lepard, Ted Oakley and Jonathan Wellum.

Stay tuned!

cheers,

My sincere thanks to Lance Roberts and his team at Real Investment Advice for kindly making their weekly Bull/Bear market report available to the Thoughtful Money audience below:

Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?

By Lance Roberts | Jun 6, 2026

🔎 At a Glance

Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?
Market Brief & Technical Review
From Lance’s Desk: Stronger Dollar Trade: The Most Unexpected Macro Bet (Part 2) – RIA
Market stats, screens, and risk indicators

🏛️ Market Brief – Rotation Snaps The Streak

The melt-up finally took a breather. After nine straight winning weeks, the S&P 500 closed lower, finishing Friday at 7,384, down about 2.6% on the week and roughly 3% below Tuesday’s record high of 7,609.78. The headline number buries the real story, because underneath it the market staged the sharpest rotation we’ve seen all year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tearing to a fresh record near 51,562 on Thursday even as the Nasdaq logged its worst day in nearly eight months. So the tape didn’t fall apart. It rotated.

The trigger was Broadcom. After the bell on Wednesday, the AI-chip bellwether beat on earnings, but guided next-quarter AI revenue below the lofty bar Wall Street had set, and CEO Hock Tan declined to raise the full-year target. The stock dropped roughly 14% on Thursday, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.21%; AMD, Intel, and Micron were dragged down with it. We have warned for weeks that the rally’s narrowing leadership was its single biggest vulnerability, and this week the generals finally broke ranks.

Then Friday delivered the macro gut-check. The May jobs report printed 172,000 new positions, roughly double the 85,000 economists expected, with unemployment holding at 4.3% and prior months revised higher. Good news became bad news in a hurry. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.53%, its highest since May, the 30-year pushed back above 5%, and the last hopes for a 2026 rate cut evaporated. Markets now price no cuts this year, and a few strategists, including Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen, think a hike is more likely than not.

The cross-asset tape remained oddly calm throughout it all. The VIX didn’t surge even as chips cratered, a sign the selling was rotational rather than systemic. West Texas Intermediate Crude held near $90, down about 3% on the session, on lingering Iran and Strait of Hormuz risk premium before slipping on ceasefire headlines. Meanwhile, Bitcoin suffered its worst week since February. Healthcare, Utilities, Real Estate, and Financials led the tape while Technology reversed.

For the week ahead, the question is whether this was a healthy rotation or the first real crack. I think this is the beginning of potentially a bit larger correction heading into this quarter-end rebalancing. However, Wednesday’s inflation report will go a long way toward answering it. A hot CPI landing on top of Friday’s hot jobs number would pour more fuel on the yield fire, and that’s the thread to watch.

📈Technical Backdrop – New Highs, Thinner Air

As we noted last week in Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?, Broadcom’s earnings were the single most important test for this advance, because the trade you can’t sustain forever is the one that snaps first. Broadcom delivered the catalyst. It beat on the quarter but guided next-quarter AI revenue to about $16 billion against the $17.2 billion the Street wanted, and the sell-the-news reaction was textbook for a stock priced for perfection. So, has the semiconductor rally ended? The parabolic phase has.

Step back from the noise. At Friday’s close of 7,384, the S&P 500 still sits about 3.2% above its rising 50-day moving average near 7,156 and roughly 7.7% above its 200-day average near 6,858, so the primary uptrend remains intact even after a hard week. The damage so far is to momentum, not to the trend itself.

The momentum picture is where the warning signs live. The 14-day RSI tagged 75 at Tuesday’s record, deep into overbought territory, then collapsed to roughly 49 by Friday as the selling accelerated, a violent four-session reset from euphoria to neutral. Worse, the MACD has now crossed below its signal line with the histogram flipping negative, the classic loss-of-thrust that follows a vertical run. Breadth tells the same story. Only about 56% of S&P 500 members trade above their 50-day average, meaning this record was carried by a shrinking handful of names.

The chips are the tell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.21% on Thursday, its worst session since early 2025, and Broadcom alone surrendered roughly 14% after an 88% run over the past year. When the generals retreat, and the troops are already thin, the index rarely powers straight back to new highs. It digests first.

For traders, the playbook is mechanical from here on out. Use any bounce to trim the most extended semiconductor and AI names back toward their respective target weights, and respect the levels that lie below, as many of these stocks are extremely deviated from their long-term means. However, for the board market, the table lays out the next support and resistance levels.

The level to watch into next week is 7,156. Hold the 50-day on the CPI print, and the dip buyers are likely to step back in, keeping this a correction within an uptrend rather than a top. Lose it, and the 200-day near 6,858 becomes the conversation.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

Next week is all about one number. After Friday’s blowout jobs report reset the rate outlook, Wednesday’s May Consumer Price Index becomes the most important release on the calendar, because it will either confirm or quiet the inflation reacceleration that has driven yields higher all spring. Recall that headline CPI ran at 3.8% in April, up sharply from 2.4% in January, with energy doing much of the lifting as the Iran conflict kept oil prices high. A hot May print stacked on a hot jobs number would all but slam the door on a 2026 rate cut.

The inflation data is split into two parts. CPI hits on Wednesday morning, followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday. After April’s startling 6% year-over-year PPI, the pipeline pressure in that report matters nearly as much as the headline consumer number. Both feed straight into the Fed’s thinking ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

The AI-capex story also gets two fresh tests. Oracle reports Wednesday after the close, and after Broadcom’s stumble, every line about cloud and AI infrastructure spending will be parsed for signs the buildout is cooling. Adobe follows on Thursday, offering a read on whether software is actually monetizing AI or merely spending on it.

The asymmetric risk sits squarely with CPI. A cool print buys the bulls room and pulls yields back off their highs. A hot one, landing on top of Friday’s jobs shock, hands the bears the catalyst they’ve been waiting for and puts that 50-day average at 7,140 directly in play.

💰 Two-Month Market Rally Has Everyone Nervous

Over this past week, everyone wanted the answer to the same question. Is this rally about to break? As we discussed last week, Broadcom (AVGO) held the semiconductor hostage to its earnings. Its revenue miss may have sparked the correction we discussed, but we will need to see follow-through next week. For now, however, the S&P 500 had an amazing run of roughly 16% over April and May, and a record close of 7,599.96 on June 1. That run certainly has the bears pointing at the sheer speed of the move as proof that a reversal is coming. I understand the worry and have cautioned about the same over the last few weeks. This two-month market rally was fast and genuinely rare, but what is important now is what happens next.

Therefore, the question we will explore is why this two-month market rally looks so unusual.

Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen put a number on the unease. A two-month market rally of 16% in the S&P 500 has occurred only 4 times since World War II. Three of them came straight off a recession low: April and May of 2020, after Covid, March and April of 2009, after the financial crisis, and January and February of 1975, after the first oil shock. Each was a coiled spring releasing.

The fourth case is the one that keeps people up at night, the January and February of 1987, a few months before the Black Monday crash that October, when the index fell more than 20% in a single session. That’s the only non-recession example on the list. So the bear case writes itself. The one-time stocks ran this fast without a recession to bounce off of, and a historic crash followed within the year.

However, hold on for a second. While that story is clean and, albeit, frightening, it’s also incomplete.

The Analog Nobody Wants Is the Wrong Analog

Here’s the problem with that argument. Look at what actually preceded each rally, not just whether the word “recession” technically applies. The 2020, 2009, and 1975 surges all launched off deep, washed-out lows. Prices had already collapsed. The fast rally that followed was the recovery, the snap back from oversold panic toward something closer to fair value.

1987 was different in kind, not degree. Stocks had melted up roughly 40% into that August peak with no correction underneath them, valuations stretched and sentiment euphoric, so the speed of that advance was never a recovery from anything but the final vertical blow-off of a market that had simply refused to pause. That is why it broke. There was no real decline beforehand to justify the snapback.

So the right question isn’t whether a recession came first. The question is whether a real decline came first. On that test, 2026 looks nothing like 1987.

This two-month market rally launched off a genuine washout. The index fell about 10% into its late-March low of 6,343.73, and that drop came on the heels of the roughly 20% drawdown that bottomed back in April 2025. We didn’t melt up into this advance. We climbed out of a hole. That places the current move in the company of 2020 and 2009, not 1987. And the upside tail cuts the same way. Carson Investment Research found that when there was a two-month market rally that gained more than 20% since 1950, it went on to rise an average of 16% over the next six months and 31% over the next year.

Corrections Are Routine. The Big Ones Are Spaced Out.

Yes, a two-month market rally surely raises concerns. However, step back, and the fear starts to look misplaced. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has experienced 33 corrections of 10% or more on a closing basis, the most recent being this year’s slide from the January 27 peak of 6,980.75 to the late-March low. That’s the headline number worth sitting with. Thirty-three. A 10% drop is not some rare event you brace for once a decade. It’s the toll the market charges for the gains it hands out the rest of the time, and on average, those declines have run about 14% from peak to trough before the next leg up begins.

As we noted earlier this week in the Daily Market Commentary:

“Let’s start with what this two-month market rally actually is. The market ALREADY took its medicine this year. It fell roughly 10% to the early April low, and what we’ve seen since is a recovery, not an unanchored melt-up. That’s the pattern after most corrections. Since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 has booked 33 declines of 10% to 20% on a closing basis. The table tracks each one from the day the decline began, how long it took to bottom, and then the prize for sitting tight: the rally from that low to the next market peak, and how long that climb lasted.”
The typical correction cuts about 14% over roughly four months, and the rally off the low has historically run a median 34% over about 10 months before the next peak. This year’s advance is 19.8% in about two months. Fast, yes; however, by this table’s standard, it is still on the young side. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #4 reminds us, exponential moves usually run further than anyone expects before they roll over.

What matters more for today is the spacing. The deep declines, those that approach or breach 20%, tend to arrive years rather than months apart. We just cleared one in 2025 with the roughly 20% drawdown that bottomed that April, and it was the real washout of this cycle. The modest 10% dip this March was the routine variety stacked on top of it. Two genuinely deep corrections inside the span of a single year would break the historical pattern badly, and after a stretch like the one we’ve just been through, the base rate strongly favors the shallow kind next. That’s exactly what the moving averages are now setting up.

How Big a Pullback Would Actually Be Normal

None of that means that the two-month market rally can’t pause. Technically, it was overdue, and with RSI north of 73, the tape was stretched. So the correction that started Friday was not unexpected. With the market this far above its moving averages, a mean reversion was all but inevitable. As such, we need to pay attention to the moving averages, which are the guides to eventual corrections.

At the recent highs of ~7,600, the S&P sat about 7.7% above its 50-day average near 7,058 and about 11% above its 200-day average near 6,831. Those gaps are the whole story. A garden-variety pullback to the 50-day is a roughly 7% decline. A deeper flush all the way to the 200-day is about 10%, and even that holds above the March low, leaving the larger uptrend fully intact. On Friday, the market cleanly took out its first support at the 20-day moving average. That break, if not recovered by early next week, leaves the 50-day moving average as the next logical support level.

That maps cleanly onto the historical norm. The market corrects by 5% to 10% in almost every calendar year. Since we already booked the double-digit drop in March, the odds are against a second deep correction. Of course, nothing is ever absolute. I made that same point about what’s actually driving this rally two weeks ago. That was when the base case was a pullback toward the 20-day, not a breakdown. Back-to-back deep declines are the exception, not the rule.

A normal 5% to 8% pause here only takes us back to the 50-day. That’s the level trend-followers add to, not abandon.

What Should Investors Do Now

So where does that leave us? Make no mistake: I have repeatedly flagged the summer risk, and it may have arrived, though it is still early. When I wrote that summer 2026 looks risky in early May, the index sat near 7,125, breadth was hollow, and the entire advance rested on a handful of names. Even after a two-month market rally, those concerns remain the same. However, the internals are no healthier, with narrow leadership, stretched sentiment, and a tape on track for a fourth straight double-digit year, something we haven’t seen since the late-1990s run into the dot-com peak. Those are real risks, and they argue for discipline, not complacency.

But discipline is not the same as panic. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 reminds us, when all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen. Right now, the crowd is uniformly braced for a top, and everyone is watching the same overbought readings, the same narrow breadth, and the same calendar that says summer is treacherous, which is precisely the setup where the obvious trade tends to disappoint. That alone makes a violent crash less likely than the consensus fears. A routine mean-reverting pause is the higher-odds outcome.

Here’s the playbook. We continue to suggest trimming the most extended winners back toward their target weights. Also raising a little cash, and rebalancing in places where sector dispersion has stretched far too wide to ignore. Keep your core exposure. Don’t chase the names that have already tripled. The issue is NOT whether the bull market is still intact. The issue is what price you pay to chase it from here.

What are we watching into next week? The 50-day near 7,060 is the next support. Lose that, and the 200-DMA is the line that decides whether this is a healthy pause or a deeper correction. Until then, the math of this two-month market rally argues for a breather, not a peak. For more on telling the two apart, see our note on a correction versus a bear-market rally.

🖊️ From Lance’s Desk

This week’s #MacroView blog picks up on understanding the US Dollar. Specifically, it examines why the unexpected trade right now may simply be to go long the dollar.

Also Posted This Week:

Quantum Computing: Hype Or The Real Deal? – RIA – by Michael Lebowitz
Risk Management For Retirees: When To Reduce Exposure – RIA – by Lance Roberts

📊 Market Statistics & Analysis

Weekly technical overview across key sectors, risk indicators, and market internals

💸 Market & Sector X-Ray: Market Cracks Support

As noted last week, the massive bifurcation “historically suggests we could see a rather rapid internal market rotation (risk on to risk off).” Such is exactly what we saw at the end of this week, as Technology was sold off very sharply while defensive areas of the market offset some of that decline. Given the massive extensions in areas of the Technology market, more derisking is likely. Trade accordingly.

📐 Technical Composite: 77.0 – Correction From Overbought

As noted last week, “The markets remain extended, which continues to suggest monitoring risk exposures.” That correction process likely started this past week, and could have more to go before a more buyable entry point reveals itself.

🤑 Fear/Greed Index: 72.64 – Sell Off Trims Greed Profile

Unsurprisingly, the sell-off in the market last week reduced investor sentiment sharply from extreme greed to greed. As noted, there is likely more room in the current correction process, but this correction, at least at this juncture, remains a pullback in an ongoing uptrend.

🔁 Relative Factor Performance

Last week, we noted that “Momentum accelerated along with S&P High Beta stocks to more extreme overbought conditions as money continues to chase just a handful of names. It remains the most overbought factor.” The correction that started last week, was inevitable and likely has more room to go as money rotates from risk-on to risk-off. Trade accordingly this next week and continue to control your risk exposures until we get a better entry point to increase exposures.

📊 MFBR Index (Money Flow/Breadth Ratio Indicator): 55% = Bullish

“”As of June 5, 2026, with the S&P 500 at 7,383.74, the Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) stands at 55% and rising. This places the indicator in the 50-60% range, triggering a NEUTRAL signal. The prior week reading was 55%, representing a 5% decline over the trailing four weeks. Despite Friday’s sell-off, the model currently recommends HOLDING exposure at 100%, a level that has remained since April 17, 2026 (7 weeks). This reflects a FLOW-OVERLAY OVERRIDE: the trailing 4-week net dollar flow has swung sharply positive (>$300B) after a deeply negative prior 4 weeks, a historically strong contrarian buy signal.”

📊 Sector Model & Risk Ranges

As noted last week, “The broad market is very overbought and trading well above its normal monthly range, along with Technology, which has been responsible for the majority of the market’s recent advance. Technology is increasingly deviating from its short- and long-term means, and a reversal is becoming much more likely.” That correction came this past week, and the deviations started to reverse. Technology, Energy and Transportation are still well above long-term means, but those deviations are closing. As discussed previously, the risk of a rotation was elevated so the process of risk management paid dividends.

Have a great week.

~ Lance Roberts, CIO, RIA Advisors

Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.

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A.I. Mania Creating Twin Bubbles In Stock Prices AND Earnings | New Harbor Financial

Adam Taggart — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 16:35:00 GMT

With the rabid fervor with which any stock even vaguely related to A.I. is being bid up right now, the advisors at New Harbor Financial warn that we may now have a twin bubble in both equity valuations AND corporate earnings.

Which leads them to wonder: Is this the blow-off top?

If so, how bad will the ensuing correction be?

I discuss that with them in today's video, as well as how they are helping clients prepare prudently for positioning their portfolios to survive whatever may be headed our way.

To hear it all, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

Adam’s Notes: New Harbor Financial (recorded 6.3.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Mike Preston and John Llodra of New Harbor Financial described a market that has been exceptionally narrow and driven primarily by semiconductors and AI stocks, with strong but concentrated gains in 2025 amid geopolitical tensions.
The firm remains tactically positioned with roughly

MacroPass™: Darius Dale's Latest Comprehensive Market Outlook

Adam Taggart — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 19:01:10 GMT

This installment of our popular MacroPass™ service for premium members of this Substack comes from macro & market analyst Darius Dale, whom I just interviewed last week.

It’s Darius’ latest “Leadoff Morning Note”: a whopping 85 slides of everything going on in the economy and the financial markets right now.

This is a firehose of not just data, but also of Darius’ conclusions as what all the indicators are telling him is most likely to happen next with the major asset classes.

Get yourself a coffee before proceeding: you’re going to need it to get through all of the excellent information in today’s slide deck.

But before scrolling to read Darius’s report in full, let me give this important reminder:

Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

To-date the list of contributors to MacroPass™ includes such esteemed experts as Lacy Hunt (Hoisington), Stephanie Pomboy (Macro Mavens), Danielle DiMartino Booth (QI Research), Tom McClellan, Michael Howell (Capital Wars), Darius Dale (42 Macro), Doomberg, Ted Oakley (Oxbow Advisors), Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist), Alf Peccatiello (The Macro Compass), Lance Lambert (ResiClub), Ed Yardini (Yardini Research), David Hay (Haymaker), Melody Wright (M3_Melody), David Stockman (Contra Corner), David Brady (FIPEST Report), John Rubino, Adam Kobeissi (The Kobeissi Letter), Sven Henrich (Northman Trader), Jeff Clark (The Gold Advisor), Charles Hugh Smith, Steven Bavaria (Inside the Income Factory®), Chris Whalen (The Institutional Risk Analyst), Felix Zulauf, Jesse Felder (The Felder Report), Brent Johnson (Macro Alchemist), Pieter Slegers, (Compounding Quality), Michael Oliver (Momentum Structural Analysis), Anna Wong (Bloomberg Economics) and Jesse Colombo (The Bubble Bubble Report).

Recent MacroPass™ reports in this series include:

If you’re already a premium subscriber to this Substack, just continue below to access Darius’ full report.

But if you’re not (yet), read the start of it below and consider upgrading to premium and access the full version, as well as all past and future MacroPass™ content.

SPECIAL REPORT: Will The Fertilizer Shortage Create A Global Food Crisis? | Bruce Sherrick

Adam Taggart — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 16:01:35 GMT

Approximately one-third (about 30%–34%) of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

With the Strait closed for so long now, there is growing concern there will be insufficient fertilizer for the Northern Hemisphere harvest this year (which contains 87% of the world's population)

Is another Arab Spring -- this time, worldwide -- likely as a result?

To find out, we talk with Bruce Sherrick, Professor at the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at Univ of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

To hear his professional assessment of this essential topic, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

Subscribe now

Adam’s Notes: Bruce Sherrick (recorded 5.12.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The interview focuses on the potential impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global fertilizer supplies, particularly for Northern Hemisphere agriculture, with Bruce Sherrick concluding that immediate risks to this year’s harvest are limited but longer-term concerns remain due to trade disruptions and energy costs.
Sherrick emphasizes that fertilizer price spikes have occurred, but

Today's Markets Are A Digital Casino On Cocaine | Chris Irons, Quoth The Raven

Adam Taggart — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:09:26 GMT

Chris Irons, publisher of the highly popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns today to explain how our financial markets are now little more than a "digital casino on cocaine".

Speculations runs rampant. Everywhere.

And yet those who see that clearly have a difficult time successfully positioning against it, because the House (our central planners) keeps intervening to improve the odds in its favor.

It increasingly feels to him that the smartest move is not to play.

At least, not by the market's rules.

For a very un-traditional discussion, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

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Adam’s Notes: Chris Irons (recorded 6.1.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chris Irons, author of the popular financial Substack “Quoth the Raven,” discussed his decision to step back from active trading due to poor execution despite strong analysis, emphasizing humility and focusing on his strengths in research and idea generation.
He described modern markets as a “digital casino on cocaine,” driven by

DEBATE: Does The Entire World Face A "Bronze Age Type" Collapse? | Brent Johnson vs Craig Tindale

Adam Taggart — Sun, 31 May 2026 16:38:36 GMT

Brent Johnson, developer of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, squared off against Craig Tindale to debate whether America, China, and the rest of the world are teetering into collapse as the current global system breaks down.

In a big honor for Thoughtful Money, they chose this platform to host their match-up.

To watch this very important discussion, click here or on the video below:

REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience:

While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

Contact Miles Franklin About This Offer

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

Subscribe now

Adam’s Notes: Brent Johnson & Craig Tindale (recorded 5.27.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Craig Tindale introduced his “Tindale Trap” framework, describing a dangerous bifurcation between the over-financialized Western economies and the material/production economy now dominated by China, leading to critical dependencies and potential decline for the West.
Brent Johnson largely agreed with the diagnosis of problems but pushed back on narratives of inevitable Western decline, emphasizing U.S. resilience, the power of the dollar, and the likelihood of significant global volatility where America could still fare better than most.
The discussion highlighted

Don't Fool Yourself: A Market Pullback Is Extremely Likely Now | Lance Roberts

Adam Taggart — Sat, 30 May 2026 16:40:47 GMT

Stocks are about to complete their 9th consecutive up week in a row.

That's REALLY rare, folks.

That alone suggests this market rally is long in the tooth.

But given the current vertical price action in the semiconductor sector, odds are even higher now that a material pullback will happen soon.

So be very careful if you're chasing this rally warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

Lance and I discuss the rising pullback odds, as well as risks to the AI trade, tightening oil inventories, the potential unintended consequences of the new "Trump accounts", and Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, click here or on the video below:

RECENT VIDEOS

Schedule Your Free Consultation

TM ON PODCAST PLAYERS

Just a reminder that if you prefer to listen to my interviews on your podcast player, Thoughtful Money is now available on the major podcast platforms:

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now:

Subscribe now

But whether you do or not, get ready for another week of more great content ahead. We have interviews with Brent Johnson, Craig Tindale, Jeff Currie, Lawrence Lepard and Bruce Sherrick.

Stay tuned!

cheers,

My sincere thanks to Lance Roberts and his team at Real Investment Advice for kindly making their weekly Bull/Bear market report available to the Thoughtful Money audience below:

Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?

By Lance Roberts | May 30, 2026

🔎 At a Glance

Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?
Market Brief & Technical Review
From Lance’s Desk: Dollar Dominance Remains Alive And Well (Part 1) – RIA
Market stats, screens, and risk indicators

🏛️ Market Brief – AI Validation Fuels A Ninth Weekly Advance

The headline tape made fresh history. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, finishing up 1.43% on the week and posting its ninth consecutive weekly gain. That’s the longest weekly winning streak since 2024, and only the 5th time since 1965 that has occurred. While markets previously saw weakness following such streaks, the 24- and 52-week outcomes were primarily positive, except in 1989.

However, the Russell 2000 actually fell 0.59% to 2,919, a reminder that the small-cap participation everyone hoped for in March still hasn’t shown up despite the megacap rip. Underneath the headline, the dispersion that’s defined this rally has only widened. Technology and financials carried Friday’s tape while energy lagged on falling crude.

Two macro stories collided midweek, and the market chose to celebrate one and shrug at the other. First, the April PCE inflation print landed Thursday morning with the highest headline reading in nearly three years at 3.8% year-over-year, with core PCE at 3.3%. However, the monthly core reading came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus, and that softer monthly tone gave the Fed-cut camp something to work with. Second, Axios reported Thursday that the US and Iran had reached a tentative 60-day Memorandum of Understanding to extend the ceasefire framework. Oil promptly slid to a six-week low near $89 WTI, the VIX collapsed to its lowest reading since January, ending the week at 15.32, and the rally accelerated. The combination of a softer core PCE and a reduced geopolitical premium handed equity bulls everything they wanted in two sessions.

The dominant micro story came after the bell on Thursday. Dell Technologies reported fiscal Q1 results that were, by any measure, extraordinary, with revenue hitting a record $43.8 billion, up 88% year-over-year, $24.4 billion in AI orders booked, and $16.1 billion in AI server revenue recognized. That is simply astonishing. However, what really drove the price on Friday was management raising the FY27 AI server revenue target to $60 billion, along with full-year revenue at the midpoint of $167 billion, a 50% annual increase. Dell’s report validated the AI capex thesis at exactly the moment the market was beginning to question how far the parabolic move could extend. The bull case strengthened alongside the asymmetry.

Cross-asset moves followed the same script. Treasury yields eased modestly on the cooler core PCE, the dollar softened slightly, and gold extended to roughly $4,576. Bitcoin remains in a bear market and has slid below $73,700. Beneath the AI exuberance, however, a separate undercurrent of institutional skepticism is building around AI infrastructure overcapacity. Several portfolio managers flagged commercial budget fatigue as a near-term risk, with reports surfacing that Microsoft trimmed its code license spending. The narrative isn’t unbroken, but it is being questioned.

📈Technical Backdrop – New Highs, Thinner Air

The trend is unambiguous. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, posting fresh all-time highs on three of the last five sessions and clearing the prior closing record by roughly 1.4% on the week. The index sits firmly above its 50-day moving average at 7,058 and 200-day moving average at 6,830, putting price roughly 7% above the 50-DMA and nearly 11% above the 200-DMA. On the momentum side, the 14-day RSI has climbed above 70 and is back in overbought territory. Additionally, the MACD has expanded with the new highs and is crossing back above its signal line.

By the standard measures, the bull trend that resumed after the April 7 Iran ceasefire is fully intact and accelerating. A retracement to the previous all-time highs, where the market broke out after the April correction is about 7.5% lower. While such a correction should be expected, givenj the high levels of complacency during the advance, such a decline will fell far worse that it actually is.

However, the warning signs underneath the surface are getting louder, not quieter. Breadth continues to deteriorate. The percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their 200-day moving average is still hovering near 57%, essentially unchanged from a week ago despite the index hitting new records. Equal-weight is now lagging cap-weight by a meaningful margin over the trailing month, and the cumulative advance-decline line has been making lower highs even as the index makes higher ones. Notably, that’s a textbook bearish divergence. The Nasdaq remains the standout, but the lift is being delivered by a handful of AI-linked mega-caps doing the heavy lifting.

The technical setup for next week makes adding more to equity exposure at current levels uncomfortable. Above the close, resistance sits at the round-number psychological level of 7,700, followed by the consensus year-end target zone near 7,800. Below, the rapidly trailing 5-day moving average around 7,550 is now the first short-term floor, and the prior Wednesday close at 7,520 acts as immediate support. Importantly, a break of 7,520 opens significant room before the next major support. The upside to consensus year-end targets is 2% to 3%. The downside to a routine test of the 200-DMA is 10%.

For positioning, the indicated trade is to use these new highs to harvest gains, not to chase them. Specifically, we continue to suggest trimming positions that have run materially above target weight. Tighten trailing stops on the most extended names, semis especially. Hold new cash deployments back until breadth confirms or a technical break invalidates the trend. With the VIX at 15.32, near its lowest level since January, downside protection is unusually cheap right now.

🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week

The week of June 1 is the heaviest catalyst calendar of the quarter with three threads colliding all at once. First, jobs and inflation data dominate the macro side, with ISM Manufacturing kicking off Monday and Nonfarm Payrolls closing Friday. Second, Broadcom (AVGO) reports Wednesday after the close. After Dell’s blowout Thursday night, the bar Hock Tan needs to clear has been raised significantly. Third, the Iran 60-day Memorandum of Understanding announced Thursday still needs formal ratification within the next two weeks, and any breakdown in those talks would reverse the volatility compression that fueled this past week’s rally.

On the macro side, the order matters. Monday’s ISM Manufacturing print will frame the week and the consensus expects 49.8, a hair below the expansion line. A surprise above 50 would confirm the manufacturing reset narrative and reinforce the bull case for industrials and cyclicals. Conversely, a miss below 49 would reawaken the late-cycle slowdown worry given that Q1 GDP was just revised down to 1.6%. Tuesday brings JOLTS plus Factory Orders, followed on Wednesday by ADP private payrolls and ISM Services, the more important of the two PMIs given that services dominate US output. Friday’s NFP is the data the Fed actually weighs and consensus sits at 145,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. Notably, the asymmetry favors a downside surprise and a print below 100,000 would put September cuts squarely back on the table.

What investors should watch most is the Broadcom (AVGO) setup as mentioned above. The options markets are pricing an implied move of roughly 7% on the print, well above the historical average and the most asymmetric outcome would be a beat with cautious forward guidance. AVGO is priced for management to extend its “$100 billion in AI chip revenue by 2027” line of sight into a hard number, but anything short of that, combined with hyperscaler capex moderation in the commentary, would trigger the kind of broad semiconductor de-risking that the technicals already flag as overdue. The macro releases matter. However, Broadcom Wednesday is the trade the entire tape is built around right now.

💰 The Parabolic Semiconductor Rally

Previously, we laid out the case that market leadership is narrow, increasing summer risk. This week I want to focus the lens on Friday’s Daily Market Commentary topic: “The parabolic semiconductor rally.” That short commentary generated several questions that deserved a more complete response. So, I want to use today’s BullBearReport to expand on my thoughts on the trade: it’s not just leadership; it’s nearly the entire trade.

I mentioned last week that, across the market sectors, roughly $23 billion has flowed into technology ETFs since February; however, almost every other sector has been flat to down since prior to the Iran crisis. Most importantly, it is worth noting that even Energy has failed to rally despite the surge in oil prices and Technology has now surpassed its early year outperformance.

However, that is just the major sectors of the S&P 500. The sector we want to focus on today is the parabolic semiconductor sector, for which we will use the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which closed Friday at $598, putting it 168% above its 50-month moving average. That is the most extreme deviation from trend in any major sector ETF on record. The setup is unique, and the asymmetry has turned against holders. Here’s why semis could break first, and how to position accordingly.

The standard measures of stretched are useful, but they understate what’s happening in semiconductors. Bank of America’s technical desk flagged the SMH weekly RSI above 80 for two consecutive weeks, an all-time high reading and only the fifth such instance since 2012. The fund trades roughly 150% above its 200-week moving average, exceeding the prior peaks of 100% to 108% set in 2021 and 2024. Both of those readings preceded drawdowns of more than 30%.

However, the cleanest single picture is the 50-month moving average. The 200-month MA at $88 is too far below the current price to be a useful mean reversion target. The 50-month MA at $224 is the actual trend that has tracked semis through every cycle since 2002.

Today, SMH sits 168% above that line. The prior peak deviation was 95% when the same parabolic semiconductor surge occurred in 2021, and that move resolved in a 49% drawdown over the following twelve months. By comparison, today’s reading nearly doubles the prior record.

The picture is unambiguous. Today’s reading isn’t part of the historical range. It is the historical range plus an additional 70 percentage points of overshoot. Mean reversion to the 50-MMA from $598 to $224 implies a ~63% price decline. That’s not a forecast, just arithmetic.

The question is what would cause such a mean-reverting event?

The Customers Are Five Companies

Every parabolic move eventually runs into a customer concentration problem, and the semiconductor rally has the most extreme version I’ve seen in my career. The entire AI infrastructure thesis rests on five hyperscalers continuing to underwrite the buildout. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and Oracle account for the overwhelming majority of demand for forward AI chips. Their combined 2026 capital expenditure is projected above $800 billion, and the SMH basket is priced for that number to keep accelerating into 2028.

Importantly, the dependency runs in only one direction. The hyperscalers can throttle capex at will. They have the cash flow, the balance sheet flexibility, and shareholder bases that increasingly want to see returns on the prior years’ spending. Semiconductor names cannot create demand in a reciprocal manner. They are at the mercy of the hyperscalers’ ongoing spending commitments. Therefore, the moment any single hyperscaler tempers forward capex guidance, the bid under Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Micron evaporates instantly.

The customer dependency runs five-to-one, and the supplier dependency is even tighter. Notice in the diagram above that more than half of SMH is exposed to four names that all rely on the same five buyers. There is no diversification inside the basket. If hyperscalers throttle, the entire ETF moves together.

“When 73% of professional money managers sit on the same side of a trade, the marginal buyer is already in. There is no second leg of buyers waiting to bid the dip.” Bank of America’s May Fund Manager Survey identified long global semiconductors as the most crowded trade on Wall Street at a record 73% reading.

The answer to why the parabolic semiconductor move has been so sharp, and why fundamentals do not seem to matter, comes down to a single word: Gamma.

The Gamma Squeeze Is Doing The Work

The fundamental story explains why semis are extended. It doesn’t explain why the move went vertical over the last six weeks. That mechanical acceleration is a textbook gamma squeeze, and understanding the plumbing matters because the same mechanism that drove the move up is what makes the unwind violent on the way down.

The chain of events is straightforward. Retail and momentum traders pile into short-dated call options on Nvidia, Broadcom, and SMH. Dealers who sold those calls are short gamma and must buy the underlying stock to stay delta-neutral as the price rises. Their hedging buys push the stock higher, which forces more hedging, which pushes the stock higher still. The feedback loop runs until call buying stalls or expiration removes the options from the dealers’ books.

The mechanics of this particular parabolic semiconductor advance are symmetric, and that’s the danger. Every share that dealers were forced to buy on the way up becomes a share they’re forced to sell on the way down. The buying and selling aren’t driven by fundamentals. They’re driven by hedging discipline against a derivatives book. When the catalyst hits, whether it’s a guidance disappointment, a hyperscaler capex cut, or simply monthly options expiration removing the gamma support, the loop reverses.

An additional wrinkle makes the unwind worse than the rally. Once stocks start falling, put buying replaces call buying. Dealers are now short put gamma and must sell stock as prices fall to stay hedged. The selling begets more selling, just as the buying begets more buying. We saw this exact pattern in the August 2024 unwind, when SMH dropped 34% in roughly six weeks despite no change in the underlying AI demand thesis. The fundamentals weren’t worse. The gamma was gone.

For positioning, the gamma backdrop changes how you think about hedging. Buying puts after the move starts is expensive because implied volatility has already expanded. The cheap insurance is bought before the unwind. That window is open today, but there is a high probability it will close after Broadcom reports earnings on Thursday if their guidance disappoints.

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes Loudly

Every prior parabolic semiconductor move resolved the same way. The 2000 dot-com peak gave back 82%. By 2008, the GFC drawdown cost another 52%. In 2018, the trade war pulled the index back 30%. Then the 2022 rate-shock cycle delivered a 49% peak-to-trough decline, followed by a 34% reset during the 2024 August unwind. None of these were forecast in advance. Each was justified by a “different this time” narrative right up until the moment it wasn’t.

The 2000 entry on the chart matters most. That parabolic semiconductor move featured the same combination of features that defines today’s landscape: a “different this time” narrative built on a real technology transition, and a concentrated trade among professional investors. The post-peak drawdown was 82%, and SMH itself took roughly 9 years to recover to its prior high from the 2008 trough, which compounded the damage. The current setup doesn’t have to deliver that outcome. However, the prior parabolic peaks all delivered something materially worse than the typical correction. The current setup is more extreme than any of them, not less.

What Should Investors Do Now

Here’s the problem with selling a parabolic semiconductor move outright. Parabolic moves run further than anyone thinks possible before they break, and the final leg often delivers the largest gains of the entire move. Outright shorting is a way to get “carried out on a stretcher.” We saw it in 1999, and then the same trap caught short sellers in 2021, and again in early 2024. The discipline is to manage the asymmetry of the move, not to predict the top.

Specifically, here’s the playbook we’re applying in the model portfolios this week.

Make no mistake. This is not a “doom and gloom” analysis, and none of this is bearish on the secular AI thesis. The AI capex cycle is real, and the long-term demand for compute infrastructure is durable. However, secular themes regularly produce cyclical drawdowns of 30% to 50% on the way to their long-term payoff. Internet adoption was real in 2000, and the underlying secular story has played out across two decades. That truth didn’t save anyone who bought Cisco at the peak. Disciplined exposure management is how we participate in the secular story without owning the worst part of the cyclical drawdown.

Most crucially, trimming exposure is not a market call. It’s risk management at a point where the asymmetry no longer favors holders. The reward for staying long the last 10% of a parabolic semiconductor move is small. Round-tripping the previous 50% is permanent damage to capital. When leadership gets this narrow and this stretched, the rally and the risk are the same trade.

Position accordingly, and stay nimble through next week’s catalyst window.

🖊️ From Lance’s Desk

This week’s #MacroView blog discusses recent concerns about rising interest rates and why much of the fear is misplaced.

Also Posted This Week:

AI Productivity And Innovation: Prosperity Or Engels Pause? – RIA – by Michael Lebowitz
Corrections vs. Bear Markets: Why 20% Declines Are Obsolete – RIA – by Lance Roberts

📊 Market Statistics & Analysis

Weekly technical overview across key sectors, risk indicators, and market internals

💸 Market & Sector X-Ray: Market Cracks Support

As we previously, the market remains very bifurcated, which historically suggests we could see a rather rapid internal market rotation (risk on to risk off). However, for now, the rather narrow technology trade continues to dominate, with that sector now surpassing Energy after its dramatic early-year surge. Notably, including Energy, the rest of the market has been mostly flat since early March.

📐 Technical Composite: 89.71 – Market At Extreme Overbought

The market continued its near vertical advance and completed its 9th consecutive week of advances from the April “panic lows” following the onset of the Iran crisis. The bull market is very much alive and well, with momentum chasing in full swing. However, the markets remain extended which continues to suggest monitoring risk exposures.

🤑 Fear/Greed Index: 71.34 – Greed Ticks Up With The Market

Investor sentiment and positioning ticked up this past week after a brief decline, as investors chased stocks higher amid hopes of a resolution to the Iran crisis. Markets remain bullish, but while increasing, is not at levels that we normally see near more meaningful market tops.

🔁 Relative Factor Performance

Since last week, Momentum accelerated along with S&P High Beta stocks to more extreme overbought conditions as money continues to chase just a handful of names. It remains the most overbought factor while the most oversold factors are Gold Miners, which we warned in January were due for a more significant “risk off” rotation which has now occurred, along with Low Beta (defensive) names. In fact, most of the early-year “reflation trade factors are now the largest laggards of the market.

📊 MFBR Index (Money Flow/Breadth Ratio Indicator): 55% = Bullish

“As of May 29, 2026, with the S&P 500 at 7,580.06, the Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) stands at 55% and rising. This places the indicator in the 50-60% range, triggering a OVERRIDE – Flow Surge signal. The prior week reading was 55%, representing a 5% decline over the trailing four weeks. The model currently recommends HOLDING exposure at 100%, a level that has remained since April 17, 2026 (6 weeks). This reflects a FLOW-OVERLAY OVERRIDE: the trailing 4-week net dollar flow has swung sharply positive (>$300B) after a deeply negative prior 4 weeks, a historically strong contrarian buy signal.

📊 Sector Model & Risk Ranges

Overall, the broad market is very overbought and trading well above its normal monthly range, along with Technology, which has been responsible for the majority of the market’s recent advance. Technology is increasingly deviating from its short- and long-term means, and a reversal is becoming much more likely. Along with Technology, Energy, Transportation, Small Caps and Emerging Markets are also very deviated from the means, and the risk of a rotation remains elevated. Take profits and rebalance risk accordingly.

Have a great week.

~ Lance Roberts, CIO, RIA Advisors

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This Trigger Could Send Stocks Bubbling Sharply Higher | Darius Dale

Adam Taggart — Thu, 28 May 2026 16:45:40 GMT

Despite stocks being at rich valuations, there's a risk of them bubbling sharply higher from here should the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh chose to "look past" current inflation concerns.

This would be akin to what happened in the late 1990s.

Darius Dale, CEO of macro forecasting and market timing service 42 Macro, delivers this warning in today's video, as well as shares how his model is currently positioned for the current investing environment.

To see Darius present his firehose of data & charts, click here or on the video below:

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While supplies last, he’s willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot.

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Adam’s Notes: Darius Dale (recorded 5.27.26)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Darius Dale confirms we are in a reflation regime (risk-on with inflationary bias), which has been in place since mid-April after a brief risk-off period.
He expects the closure/reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to be more market-relevant than the war itself, arguing that resolution would trigger capital rotation out of crowded AI trades into broader equities and credit, supported by expanding global liquidity.
On the core themes, Darius’ outlook remains