4 Key Macro Trends Driving Markets Through 2025 | Jan Van Eck

What a top ETF expert thinks should be on every investors' radar

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.

Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.

Today we have the great fortune of being joined by one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck.

Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes.

Jan and I will spent an hour discussing his macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now.

The key trends he's most focused on now are:

1. Historic distortion in the equity market between growth and value stocks

2. Fiscal deficit spending will have to be restrained soon

3. Global economic growth is increasing again

4. Blockchain usage will accelerate

For the full interview, click here or on the image below:

---

I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me afford the substantial startup costs of running Thoughtful Money.

Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the new MacroPass rotation of reports from esteemed experts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Jan are available to them below.

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $15/mo, less than $0.50/day), then sign up now below:

---

Adam’s Notes: Jan Van Eck (recorded 7.22.24)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Jan views the global economy and financial markets as generally positive, buttressed by positive economic growth and low unemployment in the U.S., despite some looming dark clouds. He notes the economy's ability to maintain forward momentum even with higher interest rates, which gives him an optimistic outlook for now.

• Jan focuses on four key macro trends: stock market distortions with growth stocks, government spending impacts, global economic conditions, and blockchain developments.

• He highlights the current extreme distortion in the stock market, with large-cap growth stocks outperforming significantly, is similar to the 1999-2000 period. This unusual performance suggests caution. Van Eck advises investors to diversify away from overweight positions in mega-cap stocks and consider reallocating to avoid potential risks.

• The unprecedented U.S. budget deficit during full employment is a situation we’ve not seen before. He warns that if deficits aren't addressed, it could lead to higher interest rates and potential negative market reactions. He suggests that the fiscal situation might force significant policy changes around 2025, following the typical pattern of major policy moves after presidential elections.

• Future growth will be more diversified, with significant contributions from countries like India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, which are expected to surpass the European Union in global GDP contribution. This shift is seen as a positive development for financial markets, as it reduces reliance on the U.S. and China and spreads economic risk.

• Blockchain usage, especially within the Ethereum ecosystem, is increasing. The ecosystem has grown significantly since 2019, driven by cost reductions and increased reliability. However, Ethereum faces competition from other blockchains like Solana, which offers lower costs. Van Eck stresses the importance of monitoring these developments closely as the technology continues to evolve.

• Jan advises allocating to