50% Of The US Will See Falling Home Prices This Year | Reventure Consulting

Inventory is starting to explode in a growing number of states

Well, 2025 is here and the US housing market is still in an injured state.

Will we start to see some healing this year?

Or may things take a turn for the worse?

Today we have the good fortune to be joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the excellent reventure app.

Nick will walk us through his latest outlook on the US home prices and share a number of his detailed charts with us.

Spoiler alert: the weakness we've seen grow in previously hot markets like Florida and Texas is now starting to spread to key states like California.

What does that bode for the rest of 2025?

Find out by clicking here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Nick Gerli (recorded 4.14.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Housing Market Correction Underway: Nick Gerli, founder of Reventure Consulting, asserts that the U.S. housing market is in the midst of a correction, with half the country already experiencing price declines, expected to spread to 20 states by the end of 2025. This shift is driven by fundamental data tracked by his Reventure App.

• Overvaluation and Affordability Crisis: Home prices are approximately 30% overvalued nationally, driven by a historic bubble fueled by government interventions like pandemic-era stimulus and foreclosure bans, making housing unaffordable for many. This has led to suppressed demand and a market ripe for correction.

• Rising Inventory: Inventory levels have surged, particularly in former boomtowns like Florida, Texas, and now California, with national listings up 29% year-over-year, negating the narrative of a chronic housing shortage. This increase reflects growing seller desperation and economic pressures.

• Investor Pullback: Real estate investors, once major market drivers, are selling off properties, with investor purchases down significantly (e.g., 75% in Atlanta, 65-70% in Orlando), signaling a market downturn. This trend is a leading indicator of