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It’s easy to feel confused these days.
With the stock market at all-time highs, some analysts predict this bull market has a lot longer to run as the business-friendly policies of the new Administration start adding tailwinds to the economy.
Others see economic growth as imbalanced, at best, and worry that overall the trend for 2026 is downwards, risking recession and a material market correction.
So, which is it?
For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.
David concludes the market is in a major price bubble not unlike the DotCom era, and advises investors to build/maintain liquidity within (at least) part of their portfolio in order to weather the bubble’s bursting as well as to have dry powder to deploy at attractive valuations when it does.
For his reasons why, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: David Rosenberg (recorded 10.24.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Economy at Stall Speed: Growth is flatlining at ~0%, masked by AI capex (driving 18% of expansion) and affluent consumer spending; labor market sputters (ADP negative, revisions down ~1M jobs), housing deflates (Case-Shiller negative 5 months), and manufacturing contracts despite tech tailwinds.
K-Shaped Fragility: Top 10% fuels 70% consumption via wealth effects (savings rate nosedives), but real disposable income contracts; 56% bullish on stocks despite sentiment at 1%ile lows—divergence signals vulnerability.
AI Bubble Echoes 1999: Valuations at 40x CAPE (2SD bubble), implying 40-60% correction; overcapacity looms as $4T market needs 8x TAM by 2030—milder than dot-com but
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