All-Important Passive Capital Flows Are Faltering | Mike Green

Prelude to mayhem?

When you're uncertain, they say to seek the counsel of those smarter than you.

Well, amongst the many experts I interview on this channel, Michael Green is definitely in the top cohort intellectual horsepower-wise.

Mike is portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

And today, we'll tap his latest thinking on the stock market, the credit markets, the economy, and where the new Administration's policies are taking us.

Mike is one of the top experts on how passive capital flows (aka the "giant mindless robot") have been propelling stocks to record levels of (over?)valuation.

Well, for the first time in a long time, we're starting to see those passive inflows falter.

What are the potential repercussions of this?

To find out, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Kyla Scanlon (recorded 6.26.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Passive Capital Flows Slowing: Mike Green notes that passive investment flows into mutual funds and ETFs are flattening, potentially turning negative, due to rising unemployment and baby boomer retirements, which could challenge U.S. market outperformance.

• Labor Market Weakness: Despite a low headline unemployment rate (4.1%), new college graduate unemployment is high (6.2%), exacerbated by AI-driven hiring hesitancy and gig economy reliance, masking underlying labor market fragility.

• AI’s Disruptive Impact: AI is displacing jobs, particularly in the gig economy (e.g., Uber, DoorDash), with autonomous technologies like Tesla’s robo-taxis threatening service roles, potentially creating