Begun, The Trade Wars Have | Michael Every

Geopolitics & investing will be a LOT more complicated from here on

Since today's guest was last on this program back in December, the world has continued to fracture geopolitically.

Where is that trend taking us?

And what will the impact be on global prosperity?

The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia. So to provide a perspective from a non-Western point of view, I'm pleased to welcome Michael Every back onto the program.

Michael is Global Strategist at Rabobank, and joins us from Thailand.

Michael sees a new era of rising ‘protectionism vs mercantilism’ as world trade increasingly Balkanizes, and the cooperative globalism that has defined recent decades is unwound.

For international relations, for the global economy as well as for investors, navigating the future is about to become a lot more complicated & unpredictable as a result.

To hear Michael’s reasons why, click here or on the image below:

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Adam’s Notes: Michael Every (recorded 5.2.24)

Executive Summary:

• Michael sees financial markets as overly optimistic, given the sea change going on in how world trade is conducted.

• Specifically, world trade is bifurcating into “the West vs the Rest”, with a pronounced shift towards protectionism in the West driven by necessary defense against the more mercantilist policies of the Rest.

• Regression and unwinding of globalization are inevitable. In fact, Michael argues that the post-Cold War movement to create a conflict-free global economy was a noble but naïve endeavor, as both economic theory and history argue it’s not sustainable.

• This unwinding may fracture long-standing alliances. Europe's future alignment is uncertain, and different member nations may end up partnering with different trade blocs. Surprisingly, Germany may be at risk of cozying up more with China & Russia.

• Investing will become increasingly challenging as