Big Pain In Florida & Texas: 2025 US Housing Market Forecast | Reventure's Nick Gerli

The coming year may finally provide relief to aspiring buyers

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Today we have the good fortune to hear *another* housing analyst's 2025 outlook for home prices.

We're joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app.

Nick points out that buying a home has rarely been this expensive in living American history: once was in 1981 when mortgage rates were a whopping 18%. The other time was in 2006, right before we experienced the biggest US housing correction ever.

And speaking of corrections, Florida and Texas now seem to clearly be in one. And that weakness looks to be spreading into other states.

What does all this forebode for 2025?

Nick shares his outlook using an impressive parade of charts & data. He’s guardedly optimistic that the coming year may finally start providing attractive entry points for aspiring buyers.

For an important interview to end the 2024 year, click here or on the video below.

And Happy New Year!!

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SET YOURSELF UP FOR SUCCESS IN 2025: The new year starts tomorrow. Schedule a free, no-commitment consultation with one of Thoughtful Money’s endorsed financial advisors to identify the right steps to position your portfolio advantageously for 2025:

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Adam’s Notes: Nick Gerli (recorded 12.30.24)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Nick states housing affordability in the United States has reached critical levels as homebuyer demand hits multi-decade lows. Buyers entering 2025 must allocate nearly 40% of their gross income to cover mortgage payments, property taxes, and insurance costs. This percentage reflects near-record lows in affordability, making it increasingly difficult for new buyers to enter the market. Rising costs of homeownership, compounded by inflation and higher property maintenance expenses, have further exacerbated the affordability crisis.

• States like Florida and Texas, which experienced significant price surges during the pandemic, some areas seeing increases as high as 60% between 2019 and 2024, are now undergoing corrections. Over the past year, inventory in these states has tripled, leading to price declines of less than 1% statewide but reaching up to 20% in some metropolitan areas such as Austin. These regions are at the forefront of a broader trend, signaling that price corrections may expand to other parts of the country.

• Inventory levels across the U.S. housing market have increased by 26% year-over-year, bringing total listings back to pre-pandemic levels in many regions. Florida, for example, saw listings rise from 49,000 during the pandemic low to 152,000, while Texas listings grew from 46,000 to 115,000 within a year. Rising inventory and longer days on the market are early indicators of