Bonds Looking Bullish As Rate Cuts Begin | Michael Lebowitz
And inflation looks set to moderate
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Is it time to become bullish on bonds?
Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz thinks so for the following reasons:
economic growth is slowing
inflation looks set to continue declining (especially the Shelter component of the CPI)
the Fed has returned to cutting interest rates
In today’s livestream, he explained how he’s starting to move capital from T-bills to further out the duration curve.
For all the details, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Michael Lebowitz (recorded 9.24.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Economic Outlook: Michael Lebowitz sees a weakening economy with GDP below 2% trend, deteriorating job market (e.g., 30-40k payroll growth vs. trend), and consumer caution curbing demand, amplifying disinflationary pressures; anticipates CPI dropping 0.5-1% as lagging shelter data corrects.
Inflation & Tariffs: Inflation stuck near 2%, not surging; tariffs absorbed by companies (not consumers/exporters), squeezing margins and triggering cost-cutting (e.g., layoffs, reduced marketing), fostering disinflation—secondary effects may deepen slowdown.
Bond Thesis: Michael is bullish on bonds (e.g., TLT) for the coming
