Bullish For Rest Of 2025, But Bearish For 2026 | Michael Howell
Global liquidity is still rising, but looks set to peak later this year
In his appearance at Thoughtful Money's Spring online conference back in March, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, warned of an oncoming liquidity air pocket.
Which was why the market's subsequent plunge of nearly 20% in the following month wasn't a surprise to him.
So, where does he see liquidity headed for the rest of 2025?
Michael’s current outlook remains bullish for the rest of 2025, as liquidity is still rising, though at a slowing rate.
However, his outlook for 2026 is far less favorable.
To find out why and how bad he thinks things could get, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Michael Howell (recorded 7.29.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Liquidity Surge Driving Markets: Michael Howell highlights a significant increase in global liquidity since late 2022, fueled by the U.S. Treasury General Account rundown, a weakening dollar, Chinese stimulus, and reduced bond market volatility, supporting robust equity market performance.
Debt Refinancing Cycle: The financial system is driven by a debt-liquidity cycle, with 75% of transactions involving debt refinancing, requiring stable collateral markets and ample liquidity to avoid crises, with a looming $40 trillion global debt refinancing wall by 2027.
Liquidity Peak and Risks: Liquidity is expected to peak by
