Can China Defeat the US In The Trade War? | Brent Johnson

Will China drink America's milkshake?

Of all the disruptive policies President Trump has made so far in his second term, his hardball strategy to reform global trade has received the most scorn.

His detractors call it "non-sensical" and "hamfisted".

That it's based on faulty logic, poor math, and has done grave injury to relations with our closest allies.

They fear it's actually driving the rest of the world into China's -- our chief competitor's -- arms.

And as a result, substantially damaging America's future prospects.

Is this true?

And is this the reason why bond yields are rising, the dollar is weakening, and gold is soaring?

And most importantly, will China end up drinking America's milkshake?

For answers, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Brent Johnson, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Santiago Capital and publisher of The Macro Alchemist.

His perspective is one you’re going to want to understand, folks.

To hear it, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Brent Johnson (recorded 4.24.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Trump’s Power Play: Brent Johnson views Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy as a deliberate, power-driven move to consolidate U.S. control, not chaotic decline, aiming to rebalance global trade and contain China, despite short-term volatility.

• U.S. Comparative Advantage: Despite debt and policy challenges, the U.S. retains significant advantages—largest consumer market, natural resources, and dollar dominance—making it unlikely for allies to align with a weakened China, burdened by debt and demographic issues.

• China’s Containment, Not Collapse: Trump seeks to ring-fence China without triggering its collapse, which would destabilize the global economy, favoring regional trade blocs with the U.S. leading the Western hemisphere.

• Volatile Transition Period: Brent predicts a volatile 2025, akin to 2022, with