David Rosenberg: Boomers Sleepwalking Into A Bear Market + Recession

Are we blindly courting disaster?

2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't.

2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't.

What is 2025 shaping up to look like?

For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.

David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets.

Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of that.

He predicts that when we enter a bear market next -- which he thinks is nearer than most expect -- a brutal consumer recession will ensue.

For all the details, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: David Rosenberg (recorded 10.7.24)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• The global economic outlook is highly varied depending on the region. In the United States, the economy is holding steady, but many sectors are showing signs of stagnation or outright contraction. In contrast, Canada is experiencing a recession when measured by real GDP per capita, and Germany is on the brink of a recession, which could have widespread effects on the European economy. Meanwhile, Asia presents a mixed picture, with Japan flatlining and China undertaking significant stimulus measures to counter a decline in demand.

• In terms of equity market valuations, David believes the S&P 500 is overvalued, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21-22x, making it less attractive compared to other global markets. He identifies better value opportunities in markets like Hong Kong, the UK, and Canada. Emerging Asia, including Japan, is highlighted as a particularly appealing region due to steep discounts and strong fundamentals.

• David foresees the US Federal Reserve continuing its rate cuts by 25 basis points at each upcoming meeting, despite some debate over its impact. He expects a renewed steepening of the yield curve and sees lower interest rates as his highest conviction trade for the future.

• The full impact of the Federal Reserve’s past campaign of rate hikes has been