Get Ready For A Downturn Unlike Any We've Seen Before | Michael Oliver

A researcher's case for a 'market ambush'

After the tariff tizzy that sent stocks falling earlier this year, the markets are back at all-time highs and seemingly nothing -- not US involvement in a Middle East war, nor growing pushback to Trump's Big Beautiful Bill, nor a weakening consumer -- can cool Wall Street's red-hot optimism right now.

Is this bull rally justified?

Have we put the uncertainty and volatility that defined the first half of the year safely behind us?

Or are investors too confident now?

For a market veteran's perspective, we're fortunate to be joined by technical analyst and author Michael Oliver, founder of market research firm Momentum Structural Analysis.

Michael predicts an economic downturn unlike anyone living has seen before is headed our way.

It will weigh on the markets, though he expects the price of gold and silver to skyrocket. Bitcoin, not so much...

Yeah, this one’s pretty heavy, folks.

For the details on Michael’s outlook, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Michael Oliver (recorded 6.26.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Bear Market Prediction: Michael Oliver forecasts a major bear market later in 2025, driven by past excesses (15 years of free money via QE and zero rates), not future developments, with economic failures exposing overpricing.

• Market Leadership Fade: The Mag 7’s decline (only Nvidia, Microsoft hold) and weak sectors (e.g., commercial real estate, healthcare) signal market fragility, with consumer discretionary lagging highs.

• Tariff Critique: Oliver views tariffs as socialist intervention, doubting Trump’s growth narrative (AI, deregulation), as fundamentals (e.g., consumer spending) weaken, risking political backlash.

• Recession and Correction Risks: A significant market correction (potentially exceeding April 2025’s 20% drop) and recession are expected, fueled by corporate debt ($1T maturing), consumer debt (31% student loan delinquencies), and $136T national debt.

• Institutional Collapse: Aligning with the Fourth Turning, Oliver anticipates