Goodbye Goldilocks, Hello Reflation | Darius Dale

Now that we're in reflation, still be bullish...just not as much

When I last interviewed today's guest back in late December, he said that the forecast generated by his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been” on stocks heading into 2024.

And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money: the S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1.

So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2?

To find out we ask the man himself.

Today we have the good fortune of hearing from Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, who brings his customary firehose of data-driven charts to bear on the discussion.

Darius still maintains a bullish stance on stocks, but now that we've moved out of the "Goldilocks" regime and into "Reflation", its intensity is only ‘moderate’ at this point.

To learn why, what Darius’ charts tell him, and how he recommends investors position now for the rest of Q2, click here or on the image below:

---

I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this new Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me afford the substantial startup costs of birthing Thoughtful Money.

Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, plus periodic advance-viewing and exclusive content not made available to the public. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Darius are available to them below.

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $15/mo, less than $0.50/day), then sign up now below.

---

Adam’s Notes: Darius Dale (recorded 4.12.24)

Executive Summary:

• Darius thinks the US economy has remained resilient, based on real income, consumption, and the labor market — which the headline numbers still indicate are strong.

• Q1 experienced a prolonged period of “Goldilocks” conditions: . But the torch has now been passed to “Reflation”. With the latest “sticky” CPI print, Darius believes the “Immaculate Disinflation” narrative which has been dominant since last 2023 is now dead. Reflation is still a “risk on” environment, but it anticipates