How To Preserve Wealth In A Fourth Turning? | Gordon Long

It's pretty hard to deny that we're now well into one

If you're familiar with the concept of the Fourth Turning, it's hard to deny we're in one now.

A Fourth Turning is a societal cycle during which the power structure and institutions that long existed are disrupted and dismantled, and eventually replaced by a new order.

Daily now, we're seeing an accelerated dismantling of the status quo.

Whether you deem that good or bad, it raises an existential question for investors:

How do we navigate a Fourth Turning with our wealth intact?

To discuss, we're fortunate to speak today with market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight.

For a sobering, chart-rich deep-dive, click here or on the video below.

[Note: Gordon’s slides are provided to premium members of this Substack in the Adam’s Notes summary below]

---

IMPORTANT NOTE: tickets for our Spring online conference are now available at the Early Bird discounted price (our lowest!). So, if you haven’t yet, get your ticket now!

---

I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.

Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass™ rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Gordon are available to them below.

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

---

Adam’s Notes: Gordon Long (recorded 2.5.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Society is currently in a 4th Turning, a period of deep economic, financial, political, and social transformation that occurs approximately every 80 to 100 years. Historically, these periods dismantle existing institutions and pave the way for a new societal structure. Today, the rapid acceleration of geopolitical conflicts, economic uncertainty, and institutional dysfunction suggest that this turning point is well underway. Historical patterns indicate that these transformations often result in significant disruptions but also lay the foundation for long-term renewal and growth. Investors must recognize the heightened instability and risk associated with this era while also identifying emerging opportunities that arise from profound systemic shifts.

• The U.S. national debt exceeded $34 trillion in early 2025, with the debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 120%, a level historically associated with financial crises. The effectiveness of deficit spending has diminished significantly, with $5.80 of new debt now required to generate $1 of GDP growth, compared to $1.50 per $1 of GDP growth in the early 2000s. Rising interest rates have further compounded this issue, making debt servicing an increasing burden on the economy.

• Corporate and consumer debt levels remain at historic highs, while governments worldwide are struggling to manage spiraling fiscal deficits. The combination of excessive debt and declining productivity suggests that financial markets will likely face prolonged volatility, and policymakers may be forced to implement dramatic interventions to stabilize the system.

• Over the next 6 to 18 months, financial markets will most likely