"I Expect To Become A Raging Bear Later This Year" | Darius Dale
He sees markets hitting a major "air pocket" mid-year
Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, has had a remarkably impressive track record in correctly forecasting the markets over recent years.
Having turned bullish at the start of 2023, he remained so ever since, helping his subscribers successfully ride the wave of ferocious back-to-back annual returns of over 20%+ in stocks.
He also helped them catch Bitcoin's price doubling over the past several months.
So, here at the start of 2025, where does his model seeing markets going next?
Should we expect more of the same?
Or is a trend change in store?
Well, after being "ragingly bullish" for the past 2 years, Darius now thinks there's good probability he will turn "ragingly bearish" at some point in 2025.
To find out why, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Darius Dale (recorded 1.15.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Darius highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy and supportive monetary policy as key drivers of strong market performance. In 2023, despite early fears of recession, the economy surprised to the upside, and 2024 continued the bullish momentum, driven by the Federal Reserve’s dovish reaction function, tax cut expectations, and AI-driven growth. The S&P 500 saw consecutive annual gains exceeding 20%, marking one of the most robust rallies in recent memory.
While 2023 and 2024 were characterized by optimism, Darius sees 2025 as a pivotal year for investors. Extreme bullish positioning across indicators signals vulnerability to shocks. He predicts a high probability of market correction or crash, potentially around Q2-Q3. Although he does not anticipate the end of the secular bull market driven by AI and fiscal stimulus, he emphasizes the importance of preparedness for a transient but severe downturn.
Darius warns of a "global refinancing air pocket" as refinancing needs for non-financial debt peak in 2025, creating stress on liquidity. Historical episodes like the global financial crisis and the Q4 2018 selloff occurred under similar conditions of liquidity strain and rising refinancing demands. He anticipates this dynamic could lead to significant market drawdowns unless central banks intervene.
Contrary to widespread expectations
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