Increasingly Strapped Consumers Are Tapping Out | David Hay
Introducing 2 new forms of bonus content for the Thoughtful Money audience
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I’m introducing two bonus forms of content today, folks.
The first is a new monthly segment with David Hay, regular guest, veteran investor and friend of the program.
David is a power-viewer of Thoughtful Money’s interviews. I’ve rarely met someone who watches as many — or takes as such detailed notes on them — as he.
In this new monthly macro/market recap with David, we’ll go deep into the major trends he sees in motion currently.
This month that’s an increasing number of recessionary indicators, a fast-deteriorating housing market, higher for longer bond yields, stubborn secular inflation, and a promising outlook for the commodity complex.
The second format also being released today is a retroactive view of the most notable interviews over the past several weeks and what David’s and my key takeaways from them are.
This retroactive video will be available only to premium subscribers of this Substack and is available to them below.
Let me know in the Comments section below what you think of these new content formats. I’m always trying to increase the value that Thoughtful Money delivers, so let me know if these latest attempts hit the mark.
To watch the public Part 1 video with David, click here or on the video below:
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I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.
Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass™ rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with David are available to them below.
If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:
Adam’s Notes: David Hay (recorded 9.4.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Jobs Market Weakness: David Hay highlights deteriorating U.S. employment data, with revisions showing negative trends, rising unemployment for new entrants (e.g., college grads), and a shift from hiring slowdowns to firings, signaling a potential recession.
Recession Overdue: Historical data shows recessions are less frequent but
