Investors Are "Pretty Drunk Right Now" On Gains Despite Risks | Ted Oakley
But the party always ends...
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Stock valuations are at their highest EVER, by many metrics.
So much so that a recent guest on this channel calls them "pornographically" overvalued.
And these lofty valuations come at a time when the macro data reveals the economy is slowing down.
How long can this dichotomy last before either stocks must reprice downwards or the economy picks up?
For seasoned expertise, we have the good fortune of welcoming back to the program high net worth financial advisor Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors.
Over the course of his near 50-year career managing investor capital, Ted has seen many gain-drunk manic market phases before. As he warns us: the party always ends.
If you’d like to enjoy a free consultation with Ted’s advisory firm, fill out the short form at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/oxbow
And to hear my interview with Ted, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Ted Oakley (recorded 9.11.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Market Overvaluation: Ted Oakley warns that U.S. stock valuations are at historic highs (e.g., S&P at 24–25x forward earnings, 28x trailing), driven by speculative fervor, unsustainable long-term.
Economic Slowdown: Macro data shows economy slowing, with job growth below 1% signaling recessionary risks, despite market euphoria.
Generational Bear Market: After 17 years without a major bear market, one is likely within
