Is The Economy Becoming A "Slow Moving Train Wreck"? | Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics

More signs that tougher time lie ahead as the year progresses

Today's guest had one of the best track records last year in forecasting key economic indicators like rates of inflation and unemployment.

Now that we have a new Administration in place, one aggressively deploying disruptive economic policy changes, where does she see the key indicators heading from here?

To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury.

Anna is concerned that the decelerating economy is at risk of becoming a slow-motion train wreck, which the recent Liberation Day slew of new tariffs will only exacerbate.

It wouldn't surprise her to see the S&P lose an additional 30% of its market value from here as the year continues.

To hear all the details why, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Anna Wong (recorded 4.1.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Economic Sentiment Souring Post-Election: Economic sentiment is deteriorating faster than usual after a typical five-to-six-month post-election honeymoon period, driven by the end of fiscal stimulus and new administration policies downsizing the government, creating a challenging outlook for the next three to six months.

• Double Whammy from Fiscal Policy Shifts: The U.S. economy faces a dual shock from the expiration of stealth fiscal stimulus and new administration efforts to reduce government size, compounded by global economic uncertainty, threatening growth.

• Four-Phase Tariff Impact: Tariffs are affecting the economy in four stages—anticipation boosts production, imposition causes a freeze, firms decide on inventory and pricing based on demand, and the stock market reacts negatively regardless of outcomes—potentially leading to a 30% S&P 500 adjustment.

• Student Loan Fallout as a Sleeper Shock: The end of student loan forbearance is impacting 9-10 million borrowers, causing a plunge in credit scores that could