Is The Risk Of Recession Now Behind Us? | Michael Kantrowitz
An analyst's assessment that a more optimistic outlook is increasingly warranted
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While many analysts are worried about the weakening jobs market, today’s guest thinks it might be exactly what’s needed for the economy to get...better?
Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler, is best known for his H.O.P.E. framework -- which predicts how recessions start and end.
Michael sees the economy as potentially entering “goldilocks” conditions of rising growth, disinflation, lower interest rates and low oil prices.
The weakening job market is disinflationary AND provides the incentive for the Fed to cut rates.
All this actually creates the kind of conditions that we normally see with economic recoveries.
So, does that mean the market will continue rising?
To find out, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Michael Kantrowitz (recorded 10.1.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
HOPE Framework: Michael Kantrowitz’s Housing, Orders, Profits, Employment (HOPE) model analyzes economic cycles, emphasizing housing’s early signals and employment’s lagging role; current soft employment enables Fed cuts, fostering a “Goldilocks” backdrop of lower rates and broadening growth.
Goldilocks Economy: Softer employment (not spiking) allows steady Fed cuts, reducing rates and aiding rate-sensitive sectors like housing/manufacturing; post-2022 inflation shock, this “no pain, no gain” setup broadens earnings without V-shaped boom, sustaining equities.
Market Broadening: Michael says to expect less
