Is Violent Societal Unrest Now Inevitable? | Peter Turchin
All the ingredients for revolution are now in place in the West
On this channel we spend most of our time talking about the economy, markets and money.
Which are all very important -- no doubt -- but they exist in service to society. If society reaches a point where it starts unraveling, then our portfolios start to matter a lot less when compared to safety & survival.
Today’s guest expert is Peter Turchin, Project Leader for Social Complexity and Collapse, Complexity Science Hub in Vienna.
Dr Turchin has written a number of best-selling books on the currently precarious state of Western society, including End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, Ages of Discord and most recently The Great Holocene Transformation: What Complexity Science Tells Us about the Evolution of Complex Societies.
So what does he see as mostly likely ahead for us?
Worrisomely, he sees all the required ingredients for revolution as now in place in much of the West — especially the US.
To hear his outlook, click here or on the video below:
GOT GOLD?: Read our free Guide To Buying and Storing Gold & Silver:
I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It makes an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.
Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass™ rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Peter are available to them below.
If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:
Adam’s Notes: Peter Turchin (recorded 10.22.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
US in Transformative Revolution: Trump’s second term marks an elite-led overhaul, purging DEI and dismantling the post-1945 global order—potentially the most revolutionary shift since party alternations, blending power grabs with cultural remakes.
Cliodynamics Framework: Turchin’s “historical dynamics” uses math and data to model 5,000 years of state cycles; societies boom ~100 years before instability from immiseration (stagnant masses), elite overproduction (frustrated aspirants), and state fragility (fiscal/legitimacy erosion).
Crisis Pressures Unreversed: Since 2010 forecast, US immiseration (wage stagnation post-1970s), elite surplus (1% vs. 99% wealth pump), and fiscal weakness intensify—revolution likely bloodless but violence risks will rise if
