Is Wall Street *Too* Optimistic? | Katie Stockton
Growing downside risks could catch many by surprise
Over this past weekend, the United States conducted an airstrike that appears to have destroyed Iran's most important nuclear facilities.
The US had been supporting Israel with defensive measures in its military campaign with Iran. But this marks the first offensive role America has taken in the conflict.
What material impact will this have on the markets, if any?
To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program market technician and portfolio manager Katie Stockton, Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies.
Katie's models show stocks losing momentum and concerning technical weakness. But Wall Street remains optimistic -- perhaps too much so.
In her mind, the likely motion is to the downside from here. Which is likely to catch many current longs by surprise.
To hear why, click here or on the video below:
GOT GOLD?: Read our free Guide To Buying and Storing Gold & Silver:
I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.
Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass™ rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Katie are available to them below.
If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:
Adam’s Notes: Katie Stockton (recorded 6.23.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Market Risk Environment: Katie Stockton warns of a high-risk market due to lost long-term momentum, overbought sentiment, and fragile bullishness, urging defensive positioning.
U.S.-Iran Conflict Impact: The U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities (June 2025) elicited a muted equity market response, defying expected volatility, reflecting uncertainty or hopefulness.
Bearish Short-Term Bias: Fairlead Strategies shifted to a bearish bias on May 28, 2025, citing technical damage from April lows (S&P down 700 points), with no breakouts signaling recovery.
Defensive Sector Focus: In terms of sectors to invest in now, Katie favors
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money® to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.