'It's Going To Get Worse' For Both The Economy & Stocks | Peter Tchir
A sober outlook for the remainder of 2025
Earlier this year the markets sold off rather violently on fears that President Trump's new tariffs would send global trade into a tailspin.
Fast forward three months and stocks are back to all-time highs, even as it's becoming clearer that these tariffs, in some shape or form, are here to stay.
Are tariffs not the grave mistake Wall Street originally thought they were?
Or have investors simply decided to stop caring about them?
To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome to the program, Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities.
In a nutshell, Peter expects a negative lag effect from tariffs as we head into year end. One that will cool the current rich valuations in stocks.
For all the details why, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Peter Tchir (recorded 7.23.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Economic Crossroads: Peter Tchir sees the U.S. at a pivotal point, favoring "national production for national security" (e.g., chips, pharmaceuticals, rare earths) over broad tariffs (10-15%), predicting delayed inflation (6-8 months) and slowdown from uncertainty.
Jobs and AI Disruption: Spiking unemployment for college grads signals AI replacing entry-level roles, with broader job market risks; Tchir remains optimistic about innovation creating new opportunities, though timing is uncertain.
Market Outlook: Markets are overextended, with potential pullbacks; he recommends that investors position
