MacroPass: Kevin Muir On The Global Impact Of A Recovering China

Why The Macro Tourist is buying Chinese stocks and inflation breakevens

Here’s the second installment in our new MacroPass service for premium members of this Substack.

It’s a recent report by Kevin Muir, publisher of The Macro Tourist, one of the most popular financial Substack accounts in the world.

I just finished recording an interview with Kevin that will air this Sunday. And right at the *very* end, he briefly mentioned his strong growing interest in Chinese stocks — but we didn’t have time to delve into the reasons why.

Knowing he had recently released the post below to his premium subscribers, I asked him if I could make it this week’s featured MacroPass report.

He kindly agreed :)

If you missed last week’s announcement, MacroPass is a weekly rotating selection of premium analysis from many of the big thinkers interviewed on Thoughtful Money.

So far the list includes experts like Kevin, Tom McClellan, Darius Dale (42 Macro), Doomberg, Alf Peccatiello (The Macro Compass), Lance Lambert (ResiClub), Ed Yardini (Yardini Research), David Hay (Haymaker), Melody Wright (M3_Melody), David Stockman (Contra Corner), David Brady (FIPEST Report), John Rubino and Adam Kobeissi (The Kobeissi Letter)

And the list keeps getting longer….:)

Last week, the MacroPass service kicked off with Tom McClellan’s excellent April McClellan Market Report.

And of course, this week, we have Kevin Muir’s report on China and the emerging opportunity he currently sees in Chinese equities.

If you’re already a premium subscriber to this Substack, just continue below to read the report.

And if you’re not, you can gain access to MacroPass (and all the other benefits of premium membership like our “Adam’s Notes” interview summaries, exclusive content, and VIP discounts) by upgrading to premium by clicking on the button here:

Enjoy!

cheers,

A

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HUKOU REFORM: THE NEXT CHINESE STIMULUS?

And why the 'tourist is buying Chinese stocks and inflation breakevens

APR 2

One of the great things about writing this letter is the subscribers who share their insights from all over the world. After writing my piece about the automakers, Leonid Mironov from PACAT Capital Management reached out and graciously allowed me to share his thoughts. Leonid’s comments focused mostly on the auto companies, but he mentioned something of which I was completely ignorant. Now, to some of you, your response will be a resounding “DUH!”, but I suspect there are enough folks like me to warrant scribbling a quick post on the subject.

I knew that much of the Chinese population live with very little social safety net. That is partly why their saving rate is so high. They need to put aside money for retirement or in case someone in their family gets sick. But what I didn’t understand is that this isn’t the case for everyone.

A Chinese citizen’s benefits largely come down to their status within the “hukou system.” Here’s an explanation from The Center for International and Strategic Studies from back in 2022: