Neil Howe: A Collision of Financial, Social & Geo-Political Crises All At Once?

The Fourth Turning is getting real

The fault lines that divide our society are widening.

The K-shaped recovery that we've seen since COVID has rewarded asset owners at the expense of everyone else.

And millennials and Gen Zers, who are losing faith in being able to achieve a middle class lifestyle, look with increasing bitterness at the relative prosperity of the Boomer generation.

These simmering grudges are only getting inflamed further by the divisive rhetoric of November's approaching US presidential election.

Are we at risk of a class war? A generational war? An ideological civil war? Or a combination of all of these?

Or, will we find a way to bridge our differences and come together?

For perspective, we have the privilege of speaking today with demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book The Fourth Turning and its sequel The Fourth Turning Is Here.

This interview is densely-packed with great nuggets of insight & the wisdom of history, folks.

To hear it, click here or on the video below:

---

LOCK IN YOUR TICKET! Tickets are now on sale for our Oct 19th, 2024 Fall online conference. Buy your ticket now at our lowest Early Bird discount price:

Don’t worry if you can’t watch the conference live on Oct 19th. A replay of the entire event will be sent to everyone who registered within 24 hours of its conclusion.

---

I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me afford the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.

Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the new MacroPass rotation of reports from esteemed experts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Neil are available to them below.

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $15/mo, less than $0.50/day), then sign up now below:

---

Adam’s Notes: Neil Howe (recorded 8.29.24)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The U.S. is experiencing profound political polarization, with the upcoming election intensifying fears and divisions. The election will likely be decided by a narrow margin, exacerbating tensions. There's a real concern about how society will react depending on the outcome, with the potential for significant unrest, whether through resistance movements or challenges to federal authority.

• The current societal divisions mirror those of the 1850s, a period marked by the emergence of a third party that split the nation and led to the Civil War. The stark ideological divide today is similar, where the two major political factions have virtually irreconcilable differences, making governance increasingly difficult and raising the specter of severe internal conflict.

• The "4th Turning" refers to a generational cycle where society undergoes transformative change, typically characterized by crises that redefine societal structures. We are in the midst of such a turning, which began around the 2008 financial crisis. This period is expected to last another decade and will likely involve significant upheaval as the old order is replaced by new systems and structures.

• The U.S. faces an imminent need to