Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Is Now Raging...And It's Gone Global

But "we still ain't seen nothing yet", says Neil

History tells us that civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern -- a pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory.

Howe refers to these "seasons" of societal change as "turnings", and has famously has declared America is now well into a Fourth Turning, the "bust" part of its cycle -- where the status quo falls apart -- often chaotically -- and is replaced by a brand new order.

Well, in its first 100 days, the Trump administration has certainly made big -- and some would say disruptive or even chaotic -- strides in its attempt to replace the previous status quo with a new playbook, both domestically and internationally.

Is this the kind of textbook Fourth Turning upheaval that Howe expected?

To find out, as well as what further transformation he expects ahead, we'll ask the man himself.

This one’s an important one, folks. To hear it, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Neil Howe (recorded 5.5.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Global Fourth Turning Underway: Neil Howe confirms a global fourth turning, marked by rising nationalism, populism, and authoritarianism, with Trump’s America First agenda and similar movements (e.g., Meloni, Milei, Modi) dismantling globalization.

• Trump as Chaos Agent: Trump’s disruptive policies—tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and regulatory overhauls—align with fourth turning dynamics, breaking sclerotic systems but risking legal and economic conflicts.

• Policy Contradictions Threaten Stability: Howe sees contradictions in Trump’s trade, fiscal, and capital inflow goals, potentially spiking interest rates and deficits, undermining the “new golden age” vision for a 2030s first turning.

• Crisis Needed for Institutional Reform: A major crisis (economic, domestic, or kinetic) by