Overvalued Bull Markets Like Now "Do Not End Well" | New Harbor Financial
While valuations don't matter much in the short term, they do in the long run
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In this latest monthly outlook from the advisors at New Harbor Financial, John and Mike discuss investing in a world of nosebleed valuations levels during a time when the Fed is cutting rates.
This doesn’t happen often.
What makes more sense: Ride the current party until it ends? Or play it safe and leave it early?
We evaluate the options in today’s video, as well as what to do if sitting on big gains in the precious metals.
We also identify several important end-of-year moves investors should consider implementing before the winter holidays arrive.
To hear it all, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: New Harbor Financial (recorded 9.24.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Market Valuations: Extreme levels (e.g., non-financial market cap/GVA at all-time highs) signal poor 12-year returns for the S&P 500 (-6% nominal per year expected per John Hussman), worse than cash (3-4% per Vanguard); New Harbor underweights equities (45%) tactically, hedging via calls, awaiting technical breakdowns.
Technical Outlook: Bullish momentum remains intact (uptrends, small/mid-cap rotation), but narrowing breadth and overbought signals warn of
