Recession Warning: The Real Economy Is 'Very, Very, Very Weak' | Craig Fuller
There has been an epic collapse in freight demand since early 2025
The freight industry has long been thought of the circulatory system of the economy.
It’s how the things bought & sold through commerce get from point A to point B in the real world.
Historically, when trucking freight loads diminish, it’s usually correlated with a weakening economy. And if it gets bad enough, a recession.
Today’s guest is Craig Fuller of Freightwaves, a price reporting agency focused on the global freight market and the leading provider of high-frequency data for the global supply chain.
He recently released a prediction that the US freight trucking industry is about to experience “the largest capacity purge in history”
I ask him what that means for the economy, as well as the hundreds of thousands of workers he expects to be impacted by it.
This one’s really interesting folks. To listen to it, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Craig Fuller (recorded 11.12.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Craig Fuller warns of a massive capacity purge in the trucking industry, potentially eliminating 600,000 drivers, primarily unqualified illegal immigrants, leading to higher shipping rates but improved safety and market stability.
Freight volumes have dropped 17% year-over-year, signaling weakness in the goods economy (manufacturing, auto, energy, housing), which employs 35 million people, contrasting with hype around AI and data centers.
The U.S. economy is K-shaped, with AI-driven sectors booming while the broader goods economy struggles, masked by
