Runway Deficits From "Fiscal QE" May Lead To A Bond Market Crisis | Simon White

A Bloomberg analyst's warning

The US (and many of the world’s largest developed nations, too) is ramping up its issuance of sovereign debt.

Today's expert is concerned that this form of "fiscal QE" will lead to a resurgence in inflation, higher bond yields, a risk asset sugar high, a weaker dollar...and quite possibly a developed market bond crisis.

To understand why, today we're fortunate to sit down with Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

For all the details, including Simon’s excellent charts, click here or on the video below:

---

GOT GOLD?: Read our free Guide To Buying and Storing Gold & Silver:

---

I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.

Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass™ rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Simon are available to them below.

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

---

Adam’s Notes: Simon White (recorded 7.17.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Market Resilience Amid Uncertainty: Despite a tariff-driven 20% stock market drop in April 2025, markets have hit new highs, driven by institutional “buy-the-dip” mentality and optimism about Trump’s policies, though excess liquidity is waning and job market cracks are emerging.

• Fiscal QE as Inflation Driver: The Treasury’s shift to short-term T-bill issuance (fiscal QE) boosts liquidity, undermining Fed independence and fueling inflation, with organic drivers (money growth, freight prices) signaling a cyclical uptick.