Stephanie Pomboy: Bombs, Bullion & Big Trouble With Student Loans

In our latest bi-weekly livestream with Stephanie Pomboy this morning, we had a lot of ground to cover.

We tackled the unexpected market reaction (stocks up/oil down) to this weekend’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities by the US, whether the Fed is earning its “too late & often wrong” criticism, fast-growing delinquencies among student loans, the dwindling inflationary odds, and the brightening outlook for gold.

To watch this power-packed hour of insight, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Stephanie Pomboy (recorded 6.25.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• U.S.-Iran Conflict Market Reaction: The U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities sparked a risk-on equity rally, defying expected sell-offs, possibly due to lower oil prices ($65 vs. $75) and optimism about tariff resolutions or Middle East peace.

• Disinflationary Forces Dominate: Pomboy sees disinflation, not inflation, as the dominant risk, with consumer weakness (31% student loan delinquency, record credit card/auto loan defaults) and slowing spending (PCE at 1.8% vs. 3.6% in September 2024) undermining tariff-driven price shocks.

• Federal Reserve Missteps: Powell’s resistance to rate cuts, driven by ego or independence, ignores decelerating inflation (2.4% CPI) and rising unemployment claims, risking a “too late, too wrong” response.

• Housing Market Weakness: A 50% surge in listings, cancellations (1 in 7 contracts), and new home sales dropping -13.7% signal a housing glut (record construction since 2005), threatening negative wealth effects as prices soften in bubble markets like Florida.

• Student Loan Crisis: Record delinquencies (31%, up from 20% in February 2025) and defaults siphon consumption, exacerbating credit card/auto loan stress, potentially cascading into