Stephanie Pomboy: Is This The Breaking Point?
Are the systemic cracks becoming too large to ignore?
Stephanie Pomboy returned for her bi-weekly livestream on Thoughtful Money this morning.
We talked about the growing stresses becoming increasingly evident in the AI ecosystem, private credit, sovereign debt (Japan), the jobs market, Bitcoin and elsewhere in society and the financial system.
To hear it all, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Stephanie Pomboy (recorded 11.19.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Japan’s soaring bond yields signal the beginning of the end for the multi-trillion-dollar yen carry trade, creating forced deleveraging that is already showing up in global risk assets.
Fiscal dominance is now the overriding reality: interest costs are driving deficits, central banks are powerless to push long-term rates lower, and the U.S. is following Japan and Europe into the same debt trap.
The economy remains sharply K-shaped; the affluent consumer has been the sole prop for spending, but cracks are appearing even at the high end (e.g., American Express charge-offs).
AI enthusiasm is cooling fast; fund managers are
