Stephanie Pomboy: Melt-Up Or Blow-Off Top?
How justifiable are today's valuations?
Analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns for her bi-weekly macro & market update.
We discuss the continued strength in stocks, which are back to all-time highs — only three months after Wall Street’s violent sell-off due to fears of tariff repercussions.
How sustainable is this current rally?
We discuss that, as well as the grinding weight of “higher for longer” bond yields, the potential of the President to appoint a “shadow Fed Chair” between now and the end of Powell’s term, Steph’s outlook for gold, and the long-term inevitability of a re-expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.
To hear it all, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Stephanie Pomboy (recorded 7.23.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Market Overvaluation Concerns: Stock markets have recovered from a 20% April 2025 tariff-driven drop, hitting new highs, but Pomboy sees this as a bubble driven by hope for Fed rate cuts, ignoring high debt and interest burdens.
Precious Metals Strength: Gold (up 30% YTD) and miners (up 60%) outperform equities (S&P up 6%), with silver nearing $40/oz, reflecting dollar weakness (-10% YTD) and underinvestment in hard assets.
Fiscal Challenges and Fed Role: U.S. debt ($37 trillion) and $2 trillion+ deficits, with $7 trillion in Treasury debt rolling over this year, will force
