Stephanie Pomboy: Stock Rally To Continue In Near-Term?

Is the worst now behind us?

In light the market’s recent bounce, Wall Street is becoming increasingly optimistic that prospects for a near-term rally look good.

Is that optimism deserved?

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns for her bi-weekly live session to discuss the odds with me.

While sure, stocks could catch a short-term bid here (though they’re having a tough start to the day today), she calculates the downside risks will continue to outweigh the upside as we head towards summer.

We also discuss the recent Federal Reserve guidance, the approaching “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, new recession warning signals, as well as several potential catalysts that could boost the economy under the right conditions.

For Stephanie’s latest macro & market update, click here or on the video below:

---

GOT GOLD?: Read our free Guide To Buying and Storing Gold & Silver:

---

I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.

Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass™ rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Stephanie are available to them below.

If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:

---

Adam’s Notes: Stephanie Pomboy (recorded 3.26.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Stephanie questions whether the recent 10% stock market correction is the end of the downturn, noting that nothing has fundamentally changed. She highlights the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration’s policies, particularly tariffs and tax reforms. The Richmond Fed’s survey of CFOs shows increased pessimism due to this uncertainty, impacting capital expenditures and hiring decisions.

• Stephanie emphasizes the deteriorating corporate credit market, with widening spreads and rising default risks. She points to Moody’s data showing significant stress in sectors like media and healthcare. The corporate sector faces a massive debt refinancing wave—$1 trillion by year-end and $1.2 trillion in 2026—posing a challenge if interest rates remain high.

• Stephanie criticizes the Fed’s decision to slow its balance sheet runoff, calling it a response to economic stress rather than a "technical adjustment." She predicts the Fed will