Stephanie Pomboy: The Cracks In The Economy Are Becoming Too Large To Ignore
Which explains why the Fed is so likely to cut in September
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Stephanie Pomboy returned this morning for her biweekly macro session on Thoughtful Money.
We discussed her views on Fed rate cuts, inflation, credit spreads, the weakening consumer, recession risk, the housing market, her outlook for the US dollar…even the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce engagement.
Stephanie is eagerly awaiting next month’s FOMC decision, as she thinks it has potential to be the event that punctures the market’s current blind optimism — if the Fed starts cutting its policy rate but bond yields don’t come down as hoped.
What does she expect to happen if they don’t?
Find out by clicking here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Stephanie Pomboy (recorded 8.27.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Economic Cracks and Fed Missteps: Stephanie Pomboy highlights emerging economic weaknesses, with consumer distress and housing market declines signaling a slowdown, while Fed rate cut expectations may not deliver anticipated relief due to persistent high yields.
Fed Drama and Policy Shifts: Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signals rate cuts starting September 2025, driven by labor market concerns, amidst Fed staffing changes and debates over its structure, potentially impacting market assumptions.
Bond Yields and Market Risks: Treasury yields may
