Stephanie Pomboy: The Next Fed Cut To Mark The Peak In Stocks?
History suggests it very well could
Stephanie Pomboy returned this morning for her biweekly macro session on Thoughtful Money and shared how it won’t surprise her that, if the Federal Reserve does indeed cut rates in September, the market could enter a correction soon after.
In fact, were this to happen, it would be extremely consistent with the past pattern of rate cut regimes.
Much more often than not, it’s once the Fed starts cutting that substantial market corrections and recessions often follow.
How is she positioning for this risk?
Find out by clicking here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Stephanie Pomboy (recorded 8.13.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Market Overvaluation Concerns: Stephanie Pomboy warns of a potential market peak, with elevated equity valuations, negative corporate tax receipts, and heavy retail-driven buying signaling a speculative blowoff top, reminiscent of historical bubbles.
Inflation and Fed Policy: The recent muted CPI and other weakening macro data have raised expectations for more Fed rate cuts (50-75 basis points in 2025), with long-term yields potentially resisting declines due to fiscal concerns and credit stress.
Economic Bifurcation: A two-tier economy persists, with high-end corporations and consumers thriving while others face recessionary pressures, evidenced by rising delinquencies and bankruptcies, challenging the narrative of robust growth.
Debt Refinancing Risks: High debt servicing costs, with $7 trillion in debt to roll over at higher rates, threaten
