Stephanie Pomboy: Unemployment Rate To Spike In 2026?
Can an economic slowdown be avoided?
Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returned for a livestream this morning.
In it, we discussed the gargantuan debt financing needs of the AI sector and how the competition for funds across public & private companies AND the federal government is highly likely to create undesirable trade-offs.
We also talked about the recent Fed moves and how they signal all is not well in the financial plumbing, the rising unemployment rate, whether the current bull run in the precious metals is likely to continues, and Stephanie’s thoughts on the energy sector.
To hear it all, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Stephanie Pomboy (recorded 12.17.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
AI Funding and Capital Demands: Stephanie Pomboy highlights the massive capital needs for AI development, potentially reaching $1 trillion by 2028, competing with corporate debt rollovers and government borrowing, which could crowd out other investments and strain marginal borrowers.
Debt Saturation and Bond Yields: She discusses risks of debt saturation amid high fiscal deficits, suggesting rising bond yields as a relief valve due to supply-demand imbalances, exacerbated by reliance on hedge funds for Treasury financing.
Labor Market and Unemployment: Pomboy predicts
