"Strong" Q2 GDP Growth Not Actually As Robust As It Sounds? | New Harbor Financial

Still lots of import "noise" due to tariffs

The initial Q2 2025 GDP growth number was just released and it beat expectations handily, coming in at a "strong" 3.0%

But...when looking just a little bit beneath the surface, the data doesn't look as impressive as on first glance.

For example, the biggest contributor by far to the "beat" was shrinking inventories relative to the massive Q1 pre-orders that were made as corporations front-ran the Trump tariffs.

So, just as the negative Q1 GDP number wasn't truly as bad as it seemed, similarly the Q2 number isn't as robust as the headline suggests.

The team from New Harbor Financial and I dig into what the true reality likely is, as well as discuss the latest FOMC release, the tremendous amount of speculation in the markets today, and the latest price action in gold, silver and Bitcoin.

To hear it all, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: New Harbor Financial (recorded 7.30.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Economic Data and Market Rally: The discussion highlights a strong Q2 GDP print of 3.0% and robust ADP jobs data, but notes distortions from import fluctuations. Stocks have rallied broadly since April, driven by high-beta sectors, though indicators show signs of fatigue.

• Trade Deals and Geopolitics: Recent deals with Japan and the EU are viewed positively but with subdued market reactions. They reduce uncertainty, potentially pressuring China, and could fuel further market euphoria.

• Portfolio Strategy and Risks: New Harbor maintains an