The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead Because Bonds No Longer Work | Louis Gave
And the AI bubble has just burst...
While much of Wall Street’s focus over past recent years has been on the AI hyperscalers, there are an increasing number of seismic developments happening internationally investors need to be aware of.
For example, as a basket, emerging market stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 this year.
And to name just a few others:
Japanese bond yields have surged to the highest levels in 20 years, threatening to put an end to the carry trade
A US-driven regime change in Venezuela looks imminent
China continues to fire its monetary and fiscal bazookas with gusto in attempt to pull itself out of its deep balance sheet recession
And in the wake of negotiating a tenuous peace between Isreal and Palestine, renewed efforts are underway to bring an end to the Russia/Ukraine war
Which international trends are the most important for investors to track? What are the biggest risks? And where are the biggest opportunities?
To better understand the situation from a non-US perspective, we’re fortunate to welcome back to the program Louis Gave, Founding Partner and CEO at Gavekal.
He shares his latest global outlook, as well as his assertion that the traditional 60/40 allocation “died during COVID”.
Hear it all by clicking here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Louis-Vincent Gave (recorded 12.15.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Executive Summary
Global Economic Outlook: Louis Gave assesses the global economy as being in a reflationary phase, driven by easy fiscal and monetary policies worldwide, with low energy prices boosting growth, particularly in emerging markets.
Reflationary Trends and Risks: He believes the reflationary trend could continue into 2026 but identifies key risks like
