"The Bond Market Is Going To Continue To Be A Problem" | Bill Fleckenstein
Bond yields remain stubbornly elevated
It's said that the "Trump put" on financial markets is not on the S&P in this second term, but rather on the 10year US Treasury yield.
The rise in Treasury yields since 2022 has sent the cost of servicing America's federal debt to record highs, exceeding spending on national defense for fiscal year 2024.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated his and the President's desire to get the 10year yield comfortably under 4%....but that's proving difficult.
In fact, after falling to 4.1% two weeks ago, the yield has quickly shot back up to 4.5%.
Why is it proving so tricky to tame bond yields?
And what will it mean for the economy & markets if they can't be?
For answers, we have the great fortune today of turning to veteran money manager Bill Fleckenstein, founder of Fleckenstein capital.
Bill thinks that bond yields are going to remain problematic for a good time to come.
To find out why, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Bill Fleckenstein (recorded 5.12.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Bond Market as Central Risk: Bill Fleckenstein identifies the $37 trillion U.S. debt and rising 10-year Treasury yields (4.5%) as the economy’s primary threat, overshadowing trade policy disruptions.
Macro Sea Change Acknowledged: Echoing Grant Williams’ view of a once-in-a-century shift, Fleckenstein highlights societal distortions (e.g., media bias, free speech erosion) and fiscal mismanagement exposed by Doge, signaling systemic instability.
Skeptical of Growth Solution: Fleckenstein doubts the Trump administration’s plan to grow out of the debt crisis, citing a narrowing “Goldilocks” band and political hurdles (e.g., midterms, Congress).
Defensive Investment Stance: In his own portfolio, Bill currently holds
