The Bond Market Is Losing Confidence In The Fed | Bill Fleckenstein

Has a bond market revolt begun?

2024 has been a good year for the bulls.

And with the world's largest economies now back into easing mode, both monetarily and fiscally, does that mean 2025 will be another winning year for the longs?

To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital.

Bill is watching rising bond yields very closely now, as he suspects they are starting to rebel against the Fed's rate new rate cutting plans.

He's been waiting for years for the moment when bond investors lose confidence in central planners' ability to tame inflation as well as reign in deficit spending.

Bill thinks we might have just reached that point.

To learn why, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Bill Fleckenstein (recorded 10.7.24)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• The global economy is experiencing stagflation, where growth is sluggish, and inflation persists. The U.S. budget deficit has been key to propping up the economy, but disparities between asset holders and non-asset holders have widened. Economic strength may weaken, and market outlooks are highly influenced by the upcoming U.S. elections, which could have a significant impact on policy direction.

• The U.S., China, and Eurozone are all adopting more accommodative monetary policies. China is aggressively boosting growth through fiscal and monetary measures, while the U.S. and ECB have eased interest rates. Although there is hope that this liquidity could avert a recession, skepticism remains regarding the long-term impact, especially given ongoing inflation concerns.

• The bond market is signaling a loss of confidence in the Fed’s ability to control inflation, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.6% to over 4%. If bond yields continue to rise from here, it could signify a