The USA Is Now A 'Pre-War' Economy | Peter Tchir
And this has changed the rules of investing
Wall Street’s fears of Trump’s tariffs and trade wars are greatly diminished these days -- at least by the stock market which has been flirting with new highs of late.
Now that we’re nearing the end of the year and a resurgence in inflation hasn’t materialized, and new trade deals have been or are being finalized with many of America’s largest trading partners -- including China, too, now it seems -- an important question is emerging:
Will the economy start experiencing tailwinds soon from the Administration’s policies?
To discuss, we’re fortunate to welcome to the program, Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities.
Peter indeed thinks the Administration’s policies, which he describes as “pre-war”, is redirecting capital investment disproportionately into companies essential to domestic production & national security.
THAT’S where he sees the opportunity for greater returns going forward.
To hear the details of his investment strategy, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: Peter Tchir (recorded 10.30.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Fed signaled data-dependence; market expects cuts by early 2026 despite Powell’s caution; Powell seen as lame-duck.
AI megacap valuations are elevated; earnings likely to grow but may not meet lofty expectations; China and fast innovation cycles pose disruption risks.
“Production for security” (ProSec) emerging as a new investment/sovereign priority—it focuses on
