"There's A Long, Grinding Bear Market Coming" | David Hay
The last time I interviewed today's guest was right after the stock market plunged 20% to its post-Liberation Day lows in April.
Wall Street was stunned, as just a few months before, the market seemed unstoppable.
Well, here we are three months later...and stocks have rocketed back to new highs.
The fears that panicked investors so much back in April seem completely forgotten.
What is going on and what's most likely to happen from here?
To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined today by David Hay, the up-until-recently Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal. He now publishes daily investing commentary on his excellent Haymaker Substack.
While likey not imminent, David warns "there's a long, grinding bear market coming".
For an excellent chart presentation explaining why, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: David Hay (recorded 7.24.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Market Pivot and Optimism: Stocks rebounded to highs post-April 2025 plunge, driven by Trump’s policy shift from austerity (e.g., DOGE cuts) to stimulus (e.g., "Big Beautiful Bill"), boosting growth but risking inflation.
Fiscal Risks: $37 trillion debt and $2 trillion+ deficits, fueled by MMT-like policies, link Fed’s $9 trillion balance sheet to inflation; global stimulus (China, Europe) adds pressure.
Bond Yields Breakouts: U.K., Japan, and U.S. yields breaking multi-decade highs is signaling
