Think 5% Bond Yields Are High? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet... | Jim Bianco

Why we may soon be nostalgic for today's yields

The Game of Thrones: Tariff Edition continues at its wild, unpredictable & ever-changing pace.

The latest development as of this recording has the US placing a pause on its recently-announced 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9th.

As we now have a *little* more clarity and data to look at since Trump's Liberation Day, what conclusions can we start drawing about the implications of these tariffs?

Are they strengthening or weakening America's hand?

Are they inflationary?

Are US consumers better or worse off, on net?

For insights, we have the good fortune today to welcome back to the program Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, LLC.

Jim warns that those hoping for lower bond yields may find themselves sorely disappointed.

In fact, he predicts yields are likely to head higher over the coming year(s).

To learn why, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Jim Bianco (recorded 5.26.25)

• Economic Outlook and Tariff Impact: Jim Bianco sees economic uncertainty but leans against a recession (20% chance), expecting tariffs to drive a one-time price shock with potential for sustained inflation, keeping Fed rates steady.

• Bond Yields Rising: Jim predicts bond yields (near 5%) will stay elevated or rise due to tariff-driven inflation and $2.5 trillion deficits from the Big Beautiful Bill, dismissing the ZIRP era (2010-2021) as an anomaly.

• Retail Dominance in Equities: Retail investors, empowered by low-cost ETFs and social media, drive equity markets (e.g., $4 billion dip-buying post-Moody’s downgrade), with active traders (younger, speculative) pricing at the margin.

• 4-5-6 Market Environment: Jim forecasts a “4-5-6” market