"This Is A Bubble". You'd Better Invest Accordingly | Cem Karsan
The market has lost all concern for risk. That can't last.
NOTE: Tickets for the Thoughtful Money Fall online conference are now available at the Early Bird discounted price (our lowest!). Lock yours in now:
Today's guest is the perfect expert to discuss a year as volatile as 2025 has been so far.
Cem Karsan is Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors & Kai Wealth. He's widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter.
Heading into 2025, Cem warned us that he predicted it would be a year of heightened volatility.
And that certainly proved true in the first half of the year.
But what about the road ahead?
Are we through the worst of the bumps, twists and turns the market will throw at us this year?
Or is the ride about to get rocky again?
Cem predicts that surprises will keep on coming as the current market bubble (and he for sure thinks it’s bubble) hits its peak and then experiences the inevitable reckoning.
To find out how he’s positioning for that, click here or on the video below:
GOT GOLD?: Read our free Guide To Buying and Storing Gold & Silver:
I’m so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It’s making an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money.
Premium supporters receive my “Adam’s Notes” summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass™ rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adam’s Notes for this discussion with Cem are available to them below.
If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (it’s only $0.52/day), then sign up now below:
Adam’s Notes: Cem Karsan (recorded 8.27.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Economic Outlook: Cem Karsan predicts a stagflationary environment driven by protectionist policies like tariffs, exacerbating inflation (3% to 5%) and weak growth (1-2%), particularly impacting lower-income groups.
Market Bubble: Current market valuations exceed 2000 peaks, signaling a bubble fueled by liquidity from Treasury duration shortening and Fed policy shifts, with a potential blowoff top (S&P to 6700–7000) before a correction.
Wealth Inequality: Supply-side policies, including the “Big Beautiful Bill” and aggressive rate cuts, widen the wealth gap, favoring capital over labor and driving populist unrest.
Societal Risks: Long-term risks include
