This Rally Looks Unstable | Peter Atwater

Bipolar investor confidence makes this recovery vulnerable

Today's expert, behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College and author of the influential book The Confidence Map, has long affirmed that changes in confidence consistently and predictably impact investor preferences, decisions and actions.

Well, there's certainly been a lot happening so far this year to both spike and crash (and then re-spike) investor confidence.

It's been one heck of a sentiment rollercoaster so far, with little signs that things will calm down anytime soon.

What are likely to be the biggest drivers of confidence from here, and what are his key indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2025?

Peter reveals his latest outlook in today’s discussion, and delivers the warning that the current extremely bipolar behavior of Wall Street makes the recent rally look unstable.

To learn why, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Peter Atwater (recorded 5.14.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• 2025’s Extreme Volatility: Peter Atwater likens 2025’s market to a bungee jump, with sharp drops and recoveries (S&P green after 19.2% April decline), reflecting high anxiety and impulsive, price-driven behavior.

• Bipolar Sentiment Dynamics: Markets lack a middle ground, swinging between panic and euphoria, driven by investor powerlessness, reminiscent of the volatile, stagnant 1960s.

• Investment Strategy Shift: Peter advises prioritizing