US Treasurys Are No Longer The 'Reserve Asset Of Choice' | David Hay
A seminal global Tipping Point?
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David Hay returned in this morning’s livestream to provide his monthly macro and market outlook.
A key focus of his is that gold now is held by more foreign governments than US Treasurys:
We discussed the significance and likely future implications of this, as well as the high levels of (over)valuation currently in the stock market, the future of inflation, growing risk in the credit markets, stablecoins, and recession odds.
We then discussed our key takeaways from a number of recent Thoughtful Money interviews — that video is provided to premium subscribers below, along with David’s full chart deck from Part 1.
To watch Part 1, click here or on the video below:
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Adam’s Notes: David Hay (recorded 10.1.25)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Market Distortion: David Hay describes the current market as the most distorted in his 46-year career, with unprecedented valuations (S&P price-to-sales at 3.3x, surpassing 2000 dot-com peak) driven by euphoria, though he’s not overly worried financially due to hedging.
Gold and Treasuries: Central banks now favor gold over U.S. treasuries as the reserve asset, pushing gold near $4,000; US Treasuries face declining foreign bids, complicating $2T deficit financing amid record peacetime deficits.
Dollar Decline: Hay predicts a
