We're Dealing With An "Unprecedented, Unusual, Challenging" Economy | Michael Kantrowitz

But recession danger remains muted (for now)

Today's guest is best known for his HOPE framework, a highly effective way to measure the health of the economy, and tell whether it's getting stronger or weaker:

As we enter the second half of 2025 -- with momentum stocks stumbling while the markets remain richly valued near all-time highs -- what does his framework tell us 2025 has in store?

To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler.

He reports that the most recent HOPE data isn’t encouraging, and that the economy — and society, as well — is becoming more bifurcated than ever. But the data is not (yet) indicating a recession is nigh, suggesting a prolonged period of economic stagnation without a clear landing.

For all the details, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Michael Kantrowitz (recorded 7.8.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Bifurcated Economy Persists: Michael Kantrowitz highlights an ongoing bifurcated economy, with housing weakening regionally and AI thriving, but aggregate stability prevents recession, driven by stable employment and government transfer payments.

• HOPE Framework Insights: The HOPE framework (Housing, Orders, Profits, Employment) shows sideways trends since 2022, with no significant deterioration or improvement, suggesting a prolonged period of economic stagnation without a clear landing.

• Student Loan Repayment Risks: Rising student loan delinquencies (10 million borrowers) pose a potential debt contagion, but Michael views this as an idiosyncratic issue, not systemic, due to economic offsets like low oil prices and fiscal support.

• Market Complacency and Valuations: High P/E ratios and tight credit spreads indicate