What Does An "America First" World Look Like? | Michael Every

The world order is fast moving away from globalization

When today's guest was last on this program back in May, he predicted we'd see continued momentum geopolitically away from globalization and towards mercantilism and protectionism.

That has proven to be the case worldwide, and particularly so for the US, where Donald Trump has just regained the Presidency with a clear mandate to pursue an "America First' agenda.

How is this wave of nationalism around the world likely to impact the global economy?

What are the biggest opportunities it may open up for investors? And what are its biggest risks?

To discuss, I was fortunate to be able to spend an hour with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank.

This is an important long-term dynamic to understand, folks, making this a must-watch episode.

To view it, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Michael Every (recorded 11.13.24)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Michael highlights a profound global transition away from globalization, characterized by interconnected economies and cooperative frameworks, toward a mercantilist and protectionist system. Nations are now prioritizing self-interest, aiming to reduce vulnerabilities in critical sectors such as manufacturing, technology, and energy. This shift reflects a reaction to growing geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and strategic competition among major powers like the U.S., China, and Europe.

• Traditional economic policies focus on managing inflation, unemployment, and fiscal balance. In contrast, economic statecraft uses the economy as a tool of national power. By aligning trade, tariffs, capital controls, and industrial policies with long-term national security objectives, countries aim to maintain stability and project influence. This approach, rooted in historical strategies, recognizes the interdependence of economic, military, and political power as key to achieving grand national strategies.

• Michael contrasts the optimistic vision of a unified global economy, likened to "Star Trek," with the reality of an emerging "Star Wars"-like era where nations battle for primacy. In this new order, nations operate in a competitive, adversarial environment. Instead of striving for mutual benefit, they jockey for strategic advantage, forming alliances and blocs that prioritize their own economic and political security. This shift underscores a return to historical norms of power struggles and rivalry.

• The strengthening U.S. dollar