Wild Volatility To Send Stocks Down 35-45% This Year | Cem Karsan

The crazy ride likely isn't over...

In his last two appearances on this program, today's guest predicted the market would start to become more volatile.

In the fall, he didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices. And he was proven correct.

But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility would start to become a problem for investors.

And boy, did he nail things with that prediction.

"Volatile" is perhaps a gentle word for the major market swings we've seen this year, especially over the past week.

To find out where he sees things headed from here, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors & Kai Wealth, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter.

Cem sees more short-term volatility, further price weakness in the mid-term & a lost decade in the long term.

For an intense dive into why, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: Cem Karsan (recorded 4.10.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Recent Volatility Spike Causes: Unexpected tariff announcements and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance triggered a sharp 22% market decline. These non-market factors disrupted options positioning, amplifying swings like a 10% single-day S&P surge.

• 2025 Market Outlook: Cem forecasts a 35-45% peak-to-trough decline in 2025, unfolding over multiple phases like the tech bubble or Great Financial Crisis. He expects sticky bond yields and stagflation to drive a grinding, volatile bear market.

• Lost Decade Context: He places 2025 within a 14-year “lost decade” (2021–2034), mirroring 1968–1982’s stagnation and 67% real market loss. Populist policies and millennial demographics fuel this challenging era for equities.

• Non-Market Challenges: Tariffs and a hawkish Fed complicate Cem’s predictions, deepening declines and delaying rallies. These policy shifts underscore