Will Tariff Trauma Trigger A Recession? | David Rosenberg

Today's only certainty is too much uncertainty

As worldwide tariff uncertainty persists and US-China tensions continue to escalate, are President Trump's trade policies speeding the economy into recession?

For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.

David thinks it’s quite likely we’ll finally see this year the recession that everyone expected back in 2023.

And he calculates that risk is currently only 25% priced into today’s stock valuations…

For David’s full outlook, click here or on the video below:

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Adam’s Notes: David Rosenberg (recorded 4.28.25)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Tariff-Induced Uncertainty as Recession Catalyst: David Rosenberg warns that Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, marked by chaotic implementation, are amplifying economic uncertainty, likely accelerating a U.S. recession by freezing business investment and household spending.

• Disappointment in Trump’s Economic Priorities: Rosenberg criticizes Trump’s focus on tariffs over pro-growth policies like tax cuts and deregulation, contrasting it with the more successful sequencing in Trump 1.0, which prioritized fiscal relief.

• Loss of Trust and Policy Inconsistency: Frequent policy reversals and contradictory White House statements have eroded trust, creating a five-standard-deviation uncertainty event, paralyzing economic decision-making.

• China-U.S. Standoff Risks: Rosenberg sees a prolonged economic war with China, unlikely to yield quick resolutions due to both sides’ resilience, with China’s long-term pain tolerance outmatching U.S. political will.

• Liquidity as Key Strategy: Today’s investors and businesses should prioritize