MacroPass™: Ted Oakley's Q3 2025 Market Outlook

Oxbow Advisors explains why "It's A Different Time Now"

This installment of our popular MacroPass™ service for premium members of this Substack comes from Ted Oakley and Chance Finucane, CIO of Oxbow Advisors, whom I’ll be interviewing tomorrow.

It’s their Q3 market outlook, which they just sent to their private clients. In it, they state “It’s A Different Time Now” and explain why stocks are extremely overvalued, bonds are set for a rough decade, and the economy is likely to experience increasing headwinds going forward.

They then share how they are positioned portfolio-wise as we head into the second half of 2025.

As a reminder, MacroPass™ is a weekly rotating selection of premium analysis from many of the big thinkers interviewed on Thoughtful Money.

To-date that list of contributors includes experts like Lacy Hunt (Hoisington), Stephanie Pomboy (Macro Mavens), Danielle DiMartino Booth (QI Research), Tom McClellan, Michael Howell (Capital Wars), Darius Dale (42 Macro), Doomberg, Ted Oakley (Oxbow Advisors), Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist), Alf Peccatiello (The Macro Compass), Lance Lambert (ResiClub), Ed Yardini (Yardini Research), David Hay (Haymaker), Melody Wright (M3_Melody), David Stockman (Contra Corner), David Brady (FIPEST Report), John Rubino, Adam Kobeissi (The Kobeissi Letter), Sven Henrich (Northman Trader), Jeff Clark (The Gold Advisor), Charles Hugh Smith, Steven Bavaria (Inside the Income Factory®), Chris Whalen (The Institutional Risk Analyst), Felix Zulauf, Jesse Felder (The Felder Report), Brent Johnson (Macro Alchemist), Pieter Slegers, (Compounding Quality), Michael Oliver (Momentum Structural Analysis) and Anna Wong (Bloomberg Economics).

Recent MacroPass™ reports in this series include:

• Michael Oliver on market momentum

• Steven Bavaria on how to receive a year's worth of dividends in only 7 months

• Pieter Slegers on 100 insights from the recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting

• Brent Johnson on the power dynamics underlying the tariff war

• Lacy Hunt on his latest quarterly outlook

• David Hay on the potential upside of unloved energy stocks

• Anna Wong on the expected impact of the 'Liberation Day' tariffs

• David Stockman on just how out-of-control the federal deficit is

If you’re already a premium subscriber to this Substack, just continue below to access Oxbow’s full client letter.

But if you’re not (yet), read the start of it below and consider upgrading to premium and access the full version, as well as all past and future MacroPass™ content.

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It’s a Different Time Now

In this edition of Market Comments we’ll discuss why the investing landscape is very different from any time in the last 15 years that investors have become accustomed to. There are now factors that the country is up against that have not previously existed at this level. In this issue we will attempt to cover most of the key factors. Notice that Exhibit 1 shows the investment returns for various popular market measurements for the first six months of this year ending June 30, 2025.

Consider the Setup …

Your normal reaction will likely be: “Oh yes, that’s been said for a while, so what’s new?” The long-term money printing by the Federal Reserve and Congress is just about to hit the wall! There comes a point where foreign buyers say no thanks to buying U.S. bonds. This has been happening for a number of years. The U.S. public investor has picked up the slack, but that can change quickly. Notice Exhibit 2 shows major differences the last 20 years.